Homeracing

How to Bet The Everest at Royal Randwick

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

October 11th, 2018

If you’re a fan of top-class international racing, then you’ll want to get up early on Saturday morning (1:15 a.m. Eastern to be exact) to catch the second renewal of the TAB Everest at Royal Randwick racecourse in Australia. The six-furlong sprint is the richest turf race in the world with a purse of $13 million (AUD), and a dozen horses will line up to contest the event. The favorite in the wagering is #1 Redzel, who won the inaugural Everest with a powerful performance that earned him a career-best 126 Racing Post Rating.

But last year’s Everest was the fifth of six straight wins posted by Redzel in 2017, a streak that included five group stakes wins in addition to the Everest. In 2018, Redzel has been a bit more vulnerable; he went just 1-for-4 between February and May, and while he returned from a layoff to win the September 1st Concorde Stakes (Aus-III) with a 120 Racing Post Rating, he subsequently faltered to fifth in the Premiere Stakes (Aus-II) two weeks ago and appears to have lost some of the brilliance and consistency he demonstrated last season.

#8 U S Navy Flag brings some international flair to a primarily Australian field. Trained in Ireland by Aidan O’Brien, the talented son of War Front was a high-class juvenile, and after a string of disappointing efforts while attempting to stretch out in distance, the colt regained his form when cut back to six furlongs for the Darley July Cup (Eng-I) at Newmarket, beating older rivals in decisive fashion. U S Navy Flag fits well here in terms of Racing Post Ratings and could definitely take advantage if Redzel falters again.

#2 Santa Ana Lane, #10 Shoals, #9 In Her Time, and #4 Trapeze Artist finished first through fourth in the Premiere Stakes, and on their best day, any of these capable Australia sprinters could contend for a spot in the top three. But if you want to go outside the box with a bit of a longshot, why not consider #3 Le Romain? This six-year-old son of Hard Spun doesn’t win all that often, but through the years he’s held his own against some of the best horses in Australia, beating the top sprinter Chautauqua in the 6 ½-furlong 2017 Canterbury BWM Stakes (Aus-I) at Randwick and finishing second behind superstar Winx in a couple of Group 1 races, including the Colgate Optic White Stakes (Aus-I) just one month ago.

You can argue that six furlongs might be a little sharp for Le Romain, but his class is unquestionable, and with a little bit of luck I think he can finish on the board at a nice price in the Everest.

Here’s how I would play the race:

$5 to win on #3 Le Romain $8 to place on #3 Le Romain $2 exacta: 1,3,8 with 1,3,8 ($12)

Good luck!
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