BetAmerica’s horse racing pick of the day: July 28, Colonial Downs

Profile Picture: Keeler Johnson

July 28th, 2020

Weekday picks and plays for Thoroughbred racing.

Tuesday, July 28

Colonial Downs, Race 1: Maiden special weight (6 furlongs, 6:30 p.m. ET)

Trainer Michael Stidham compiled a fantastic record at Colonial Downs last year, when he went 10-for-26 (38%) overall and 5-for-12 (42%) with 3-year-olds.

With that in mind, Stidham’s sophomore #2 Branco Maria (8-5 on the morning line) figures to be tough to beat in the Tuesday opener at Colonial Downs.

Sold for $385,000 as a yearling, Branco Maria debuted in a 6-furlong maiden dash at Tampa Bay Downs in May. He ran evenly to finish third, with a strong 86 Brisnet Speed rating. This figure far exceeds the 80 Brisnet Speed rating typically needed to win over Tuesday’s class level and distance at Colonial Downs.

Branco Maria finished fifth when he switched to turf and stretched out to 1 1/16 miles July 5 at Monmouth Park, where he tired slightly after he tracked the early pace. A cut back in distance and a return to dirt should make all the difference for this son of Candy Ride, who will be guided for the first time by Trevor McCarthy, Colonial’s leading jockey of 2019.

Let’s bet Branco Maria to win and play him in the exacta, with #4 Per Diem (9-5), a speedy son of Carpe Diem who will try the dirt after he weakened to finish fourth in a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint at Ellis Park.

$20 to win on #2 Branco Maria
$10 exacta: 2 with 4
Total: $30

Good luck!