BetAmerica’s horse racing pick of the day: July 29, Saratoga

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July 29th, 2020

Weekday picks and plays for Thoroughbred racing.

Wednesday, July 29

Saratoga, Race 4: Maiden special weight (1 1/8 miles, 2:29 p.m. ET)

Six of the seven horses entered in this 1 1/8-mile maiden race have lost multiple times.

The favored stablemates #1 Ajhar and #1A Ashiham (6-5 on the morning line) have each gone 0-for-4. That’s not to say Ajhar and Ashiham don’t have potential. Both sold for $800,000 as yearlings and have finished in the money a couple times apiece. But rather than rely on them to win, I’ll take a chance with #2 Hometown (9-2).

A son of hot young sire Constitution, Hometown has only run once, and he overcame a troubled break to rally and finish fifth in a 6-furlong sprint at Churchill Downs, behind the next-out winners Yaupon and Savvy. The 80 Brisnet Speed rating Hometown received isn’t far off the best figures in Wednesday’s field, and considering trainer Rodolphe Brisset wins at just a 9% rate with first-time starters, Hometown’s debut can be viewed in a positive light.

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Rodolphe Brisset statistics, courtesy of Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances

Hometown will stretch out significantly in distance at Saratoga, but Brisset strikes at a 22% rate with second-time starters and with horses running long for the first time, which suggests this WinStar Farm runner will be primed for an improved effort.

Let’s bet Hometown to win and box him in the exacta, with Ajhar and Ashiham.

$10 to win on #2 Hometown
$2 exacta: 2 with 1
$8 exacta: 1 with 2
Total: $20

Good luck!