BetAmerica’s horse racing pick of the day: July 29, Saratoga
Weekday picks and plays for Thoroughbred racing.
Wednesday, July 29
Six of the seven horses entered in this 1 1/8-mile maiden race have lost multiple times.
The favored stablemates #1 Ajhar and #1A Ashiham (6-5 on the morning line) have each gone 0-for-4. That’s not to say Ajhar and Ashiham don’t have potential. Both sold for $800,000 as yearlings and have finished in the money a couple times apiece. But rather than rely on them to win, I’ll take a chance with #2 Hometown (9-2).
A son of hot young sire Constitution, Hometown has only run once, and he overcame a troubled break to rally and finish fifth in a 6-furlong sprint at Churchill Downs, behind the next-out winners Yaupon and Savvy. The 80 Brisnet Speed rating Hometown received isn’t far off the best figures in Wednesday’s field, and considering trainer Rodolphe Brisset wins at just a 9% rate with first-time starters, Hometown’s debut can be viewed in a positive light.
Hometown will stretch out significantly in distance at Saratoga, but Brisset strikes at a 22% rate with second-time starters and with horses running long for the first time, which suggests this WinStar Farm runner will be primed for an improved effort.
$10 to win on #2 Hometown
$2 exacta: 2 with 1
$8 exacta: 1 with 2