BetAmerica’s horse racing pick of the day: July 31, Ellis Park

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July 31st, 2020

Weekday picks and plays for Thoroughbred racing.

Friday, July 31

Ellis Park, Race 4: Maiden special weight (5 furlongs, 3:14 p.m. ET)

Looking for a longshot to play this week? Look no further than #2 Violenza d’Oro (15-1 on the morning line).

In a field full of well-bred 2-year-old maidens, Violenza d’Oro offers appeal on several fronts. His sire, Violence, is responsible for 20% debut winners. His dam, Mayfield, has foaled seven winners from seven starters. And while trainer Teddy Randazzo hasn’t saddled a first-time starter since 2004, he’s a high-percentage trainer across the board, who wins at a 21% rate with sprinters.

Violenza d’Oro has flashed bits of speed in the mornings at Fairmount Park, where he clocked a swift half-mile from the starting gate in :48 4/5 June 20.

It is interesting to note Ellis Park’s leading jockey, Rafael Bejarano (11-for-49), has accepted the mount, which hints Violenza d’Oro has a live shot to factor at a price.

Assuming his 15-1 morning line odds hold up, let’s bet Violenza d’Oro to win and place.

$10 to win on #2 Violenza d’Oro
$15 to place on #2 Violenza d’Oro
Total: $25

Good luck!