Homeracing

Closing out the Keeneland Meet Strong- Late Pick 5 Analysis

Profile Picture: Scott Shapiro

April 27th, 2018

It is Closing Day at and that means that all pools are mandatory payouts, including the late Pick 5 that commences in Race 6.

Horses that possess stamina will be on display on Friday in Lexington as all five races are conducted at least two turns, with three of them at a mile and three-sixteenths or further.

Let’s close out the meet strong and help build the bankroll for the start of the meeting on Saturday evening. Here are my thoughts:

Race 6:

The late Pick 5 starts with a low level maiden claimer contested at a mile and three-sixteenths over the main track. It is not the strongest bunch to say the least, but I am going live or die with two runners.

#1 Zarski gets blinkers for the first time and a positive rider upgrade to Adam Beschizza. With the rail draw I am hopeful Beschizza is aggressive early. If he can make an easy lead he could be tough to get by late.

#3 Sacred Walk could not take advantage of a great trip last time out moving from turf to dirt for trainer Dallas Stewart, but he was 25-1 and put in a solid effort. If Zarski does not move forward on the equipment change I give this son of Tiznow a big shot to get to the wire first.

Race 7:

There does not appear to be an abundance of early zip signed on in this nine-furlong event over the lawn, which is worth noting especially with how well speed has played on the Keeneland sod this spring. Therefore, I will avoid runners that come from way out of it.

#4 Take That for Data is my top choice after a three and three-quarter length score at Fair Grounds for trainer Brad Cox. The son of Pioneerof the Nile should find himself in a cozy mid-pack spot early. If he can avoid regression off of the maiden breaking score six weeks ago he can make it two straight.

I will also include #5 Ceduna who should be on the lead for trainer Thomas Upton and #7 Morning Stride after an extremely wide voyage in his first start off the bench on March 25th in New Orleans.

Race 8:

#3 Mannerly is listed as the 7-2-morning line favorite in this high level optional claimer and will be my single in the final Pick 5 of the meeting.

The four-year-old filly ran over the Fair Grounds lawn in the first start of her four-year-old campaign for trainer Brendan Walsh and ran well finishing third in a field of eight. Walsh moves her to the main track and I expect a career best effort for the daughter of Unbridled’s Song.  Look for jockey Julien Leparoux to sit a few lengths off the early pace and take control when they turn for home.

Race 9:

The featured Grade 3 Bewitch is the final stakes race of the spring meet and features heavy 3 to 5 favorite #5 Daddys Lil Darling. The daughter of Scat Daddy takes on older fillies and mares for the second time in her career after finishing fourth, beaten just a length in the Grade 2 Hillsborough at Tampa Bay Downs on March 10th. S

is certainly the horse to beat in this field, but I am not convinced she has to win, so I will also include #2 Mom’s on Strike. The Florida-bred lost for the first time in five starts in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes and needs to prove she can get the added distance. However, the price is right for a mare that loves to win races as of late.

Race 10:

The meet concludes with a maiden special weight over the lawn. I lack a strong opinion in this one, so I will use several and hope to catch a price to complete the late Pick 5.

Here is how I will attack the sequence:

Suggested Ticket:

Race 6: 1+3

Race 7: 4+5+7

Race 8: 3

Race 9: 2+5

Race 10: 3+5+6+7+8

Ticket Cost: $30



Good luck!

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