Homeracing

Fair Grounds: Is the 2018 Louisiana Derby Bravazo's to Lose?

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D.S. Williamson

March 18th, 2018

The Fair Grounds isn't messing around. One of the best understated racetracks in the nation has already drawn for and assigned odds for the March 24, 2018 Louisiana Derby. As to be expected, Bravazo is one of the choices at 7/2. He's not alone at 7/2, though.

The Todd Pletcher trained Noble Indy is also at 7/2. However, both Bravazo and Noble Indy are second choices on the morning line. The favorite is Southwest Stakes winner My Boy Jack. My Boy Jack is the morning line choice at 5/2.

Will Bravazo, Noble Indy or My Boy Jack take it? Is there an underdog that bettors should pay attention to? I've already handicapped the 2018 Louisiana Derby. Check it out!

Fair Grounds:  Is the 2018 Louisiana Derby Bravazo's to Lose?



I've attached the Risen Star Stakes just because I couldn't find video on whom I believe wins the 2018 Louisiana Derby. Hopefully, after the Louisiana Derby, there will be plenty of videos about my top choice.

Let me write off the bat that I'm not sold on Bravazo, Snapper Sinclair, or even Noble Indy. I believe the 2018 Louisiana Derby is ripe for a couple of longshots to run well.

1. Dark Templar 12/1

Newton Anner Stud bought the Tapit sired, Brendan Walsh trained, 3-year-old at the 2016 Keeneland September Sale for $475,000. With his best victory being in a $50,000 optional claiming race, there's reason to believe he's over his head in this.

I don't think so. He's gotten better with every race. This might be the race where he takes a huge step forward. I believe he gets the perfect trip under Florent Geroux, who knows the Fair Grounds dirt about as well as any jockey in the race. Dark Templar could pull off a massive upset.

2. Hyndford 8/1

Street Cry sired Todd Pletcher's second entrant into the Louisiana Derby. Hyndford's last race was a second in a $75,000 optional claimer at Tampa Bay Downs in his last. Could he improve enough to win on March 24? Yep. If he improves the way Pletcher 3-year-olds often do, he could easily take the Louisiana Derby.

Like Dark Templar, I believe Hyndford has yet to show his step ahead race. If Hyndford provides that step ahead race in the Louisiana Derby, he could win it.

3. My Boy Jack 5/2

The chalk benefited from an inside speed bias when winning the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park in his last. He most likely won't get an inside speed bias this Saturday. With that being written, My Boy Jack has every right to improve enough to win the Louisiana Derby. Heck, if nobody improves on March 24, he's probably the winner just because the race sets up for his style. Also, trainer Keith Desormeaux often takes him time developing his 3-year-olds.

This guy might be ready to be the horse to beat on the First Saturday in May.

4. Noble Indy 7/2

I believe he goes off as the chalk in the Louisiana Derby. Noble Indy has every reason to be Todd Pletcher's best chance at back-to-back Derbies. He improved in every race. He also ran well in the Risen Star Stakes. Bravazo and Snapper Sinclair got away with easy fractions. That's why Todd put blinkers on Noble Indy for his run this Saturday.

How will Noble Indy perform? He could win by 10 lengths. Or, he could finish a non-threatening fourth. Because of his likely underlay odds, I'll bet he finishes a non-threatening fourth.

Send me comments on who you like for the March 24 Louisiana Derby!

 

 
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