Fair Grounds: How to bet the early Pick 3 on Jan. 10

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

January 8th, 2021

Planning to bet Fair Grounds on Sunday? The early Pick 3 looks enticing, with a pair of possible singles in the sequence.

We’ve got a $20 play to get you started.

Race 1: $5,000 claiming (1 mile 2 p.m. ET)

#6 Hero of the Hour (2-1) has competed against tougher company and brings the best recent Brisnet Speed ratings. Last winter at Fair Grounds, the son of City Zip wired a $30,000/$25,000 claiming event at 1 1/16 miles on turf, where he pulled clear to win by 1 3/4 lengths.

But Hero of the Hour’s form has slipped significantly in recent starts. He finished last, for a $15,000 tag, at Fair Grounds last month. Now will drop down the class ladder and switch to dirt, a surface he has not raced on. Perhaps these changes will awaken the 6-year-old gelding, but as the 2-1 favorite, he doesn’t offer much value.

I’ll oppose Hero of the Hour with #1 V Man (3-1), who finished second at this class level and distance at Fair Grounds two starts back. I’ll draw a line through V Man’s most recent effort (a fourth-place finish sprinting 6 furlongs at Fair Grounds), since he endured a troubled start at a distance shorter than his best. A clean break on the stretch back out around two turns can trigger a rebound.

Race 2: $10,000 starter/optional claiming (1 1/16 miles on turf, 2:29 p.m. ET)

#2 Treys Midnite Moon (6-5) has placed in multiple stakes races and owns clearly the best résumé in this field. He hasn’t missed the trifecta in his last nine non-stakes starts and comes in hot, with a win and a placing at this class level since November.

The switch back to grass, after a runner-up effort on dirt, can send Treys Midnite Moon back to the winner’s circle at a short price.

Race 3: $15,000 maiden claiming (6 furlongs, 2:58 p.m. ET)

#1A Staceys Racey (8-5) rallied to finish second over this track, distance, and class level Nov. 29, when she was beaten just 3 1/4 lengths. She is the only experienced runner in Sunday’s field to have finished within 11 lengths of victory at any class level, which stamps the bay filly as the horse to beat.

But don’t be surprised if #7 Pulling Bank (7-2) challenges on debut. Trainer Justin Jeansonne strikes at a 21% rate with first-time starters and at a 23% rate with debut runners in maiden claiming events. Pulling Bank has shown flashes of speed in the morning, so we’ll use her equally with Staceys Racey to conclude our Pick 3.

The Ticket

$10 Pick 3: 1 with 2 with 1,7 ($20)

Good luck!