How to bet the early Pick 3 on Louisiana Derby Day

Profile Picture: Keeler Johnson

March 19th, 2020

An exciting afternoon of racing awaits at Fair Grounds on Saturday, led by the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2).

The 12-race card gets underway at noon ET. Hoping to start the day on a winning note? Consider playing the early Pick 3, a competitive but straightforward sequence that should be winnable on a small budget. With a bit of luck, you’ll cash a winning ticket and build your bankroll for the graded stakes action later in the afternoon.

Let’s put together a play.

Race 1: Crescent City Derby (Noon ET)

There isn’t much speed in this 1 1/16-mile race, which could lend a significant tactical advantage to #1 Sydster. The son of Power Broker has won two of his last three starts and wasn’t badly beaten in a 1-mile and 70-yard allowance race Feb. 17, considering he raced wide every step of the way and was only beaten 1 3/4 lengths by a ground-saving rival.

His rail draw should reverse the scenario for Sydster on Saturday and return him to the winner’s circle with high-percentage jockey Florent Geroux in the saddle.

Race 2: Maiden special weight (12:30 p.m. ET)

#13 Dreamalildreamofu is the 3-1 favorite, after she finished second over this turf course and 1-mile distance Feb. 15, but she is marooned in post 13 and figures to endure a wide trip.

Since she doesn’t boast a meaningful edge in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, we’ll spread deep with the speedy #5 Flabbergasted, the consistent #6 Fate Factor, and the well-bred first-time starters #7 My Precious and #12 Sunset Stroll. The latter is trained by Wayne Catalano, who wins at 24% rate with runners debuting on turf.

Race 3: Crescent City Oaks (1 p.m. ET)

We’ll end the sequence with a single. #8 Steph’sfullasugar is undefeated two starts. She won her debut sprinting at Fair Grounds, then stretched out to a mile at Delta Downs, where she won the LA Bred Premier Night S. by 6 3/4 lengths.

A well-bred daughter pf Tapiture, Steph’sfullasugar is conditioned by high-percentage trainer Victor Arceneaux, who wins at a 39% rate in ungraded stakes races.

Also noteworthy? There’s rain in the forecast for Saturday, and Tapiture sires 23% winners in the mud.

$5 Pick 3: 1 with 5,6,7,12,13 with 8 ($25)

Good luck!