How to bet the Longacres Mile Handicap

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

September 9th, 2020

True, #4 Anothertwistafate (8-5) hasn’t run in 16 months. Granted, he won’t offer much value as the morning line favorite. Nonetheless, I’ll be surprised if he fails to reach the winner’s circle in Thursday’s Longacres Mile H. (G3) at Emerald Downs.

There’s a lot to like about this 4-year-old son of Scat Daddy. As a sophomore he showed significant talent, dominating the El Camino Real Derby, before finishing second in the Sunland Derby (G3) and Lexington (G3).

In the Sunland Derby, Anothertwistafate endured a tricky trip but ultimately lost by just a neck while pulling 5 3/4 lengths clear of future Pegasus World Cup (G1) winner Mucho Gusto.

Anothertwistafate hasn’t run since finishing 10th in the 2019 Preakness (G1), but he’s been training up a storm for hot trainer Blaine Wright, a 22% winner at Emerald Downs this summer.

The dark bay colt has posted a bevy of fast workouts since mid-June, including a blazing 6 furlongs in 1:10.40 on Aug. 16.

Since Wright wins at a 28% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 180 days or more, there’s no reason to think Anothertwistafate won’t fire a big shot off the extended break.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, Anothertwistafate is already one of the fastest runners in the Longacres Mile field, having posted a trio of figures in the 97-99 range during his peak run last season.

If he takes a step forward with maturity, Anothertwistafate — with his perfect blend of tactical speed and tractability — can deliver a winning effort under two-time Longacres Mile-winning jockey Juan Gutierrez.

So let’s play Anothertwistafate on top in the trifecta, with the goal of boosting the payoff generated by this short-priced favorite. Underneath, the consistent stakes winners #2 Five Star General (9-2) and #5 He’s the Reason (5-1) both warrant respect, as they bring competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the equation for high-percentage trainer Glen Todd.

But the blazingly fast sprinter #7 Papa’s Golden Boy (10-1) can also get a piece of the action if he stretches his speed in a more relaxed manner over Thursday’s one-mile journey.

We'll round out our ticket with #1 Elliott Bay (8-1) and #8 Take Charge Deputy (12-1).

$2.50 trifecta: 4 with 2,5,7 with 1,2,5,7,8 ($30)

Good luck!