Homeracing

Why I'm Betting Thewayiam in the Lake Placid Stakes

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

August 16th, 2018

Speaking strictly in terms of class and overall accomplishments to date, it’s hard to deny that #6 Rushing Fall is the best filly in Saturday’s $300,000 Lake Placid Stakes (gr. II) at Saratoga.

Just look at her overall record—four wins from five starts, including a triumph against a top-notch international field in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I) last fall. And her lone loss came by just a neck in the Edgewood Stakes (gr. II) earlier this spring, which was hardly a bad effort. Throw in her high-level connections (she’s trained by Chad Brown and will be ridden by Javier Castellano), and you have a clear favorite from a wagering perspective.

But despite Rushing Fall’s obvious credentials, I’m inclined to play against her in the Lake Placid. For one, this race will mark her first start going nine furlongs, and the way she lost the lead late in the homestretch of the Edgewood Stakes leaves me wondering whether she might ultimately be best as a miler. Furthermore, she hasn’t run since the beginning of May, having missed several prospective starts for a variety of reasons, including illness. As a result, I think she could be vulnerable to an upset on Saturday.

Therefore, I’ll try to beat her with #1 Thewayiam. Trained by Graham Motion, this talented filly has finished first or second in all six of her starts this season, which includes three straight runner-up efforts in the Appalachian Stakes (gr. II), the Penn Oaks, and the Belmont Oaks (gr. I). In the Appalachian, she overcame a troubled start and a poor pace setup to fall just a length short of Rushing Fall at the finish line, and in the Belmont Oaks, she rallied well into a quick final quarter-mile to secure second place behind the talented European shipper Athena.

Drawing the rail should allow Thewayiam to save ground, and if she can find racing room in the homestretch, the impressive turn-of-foot she’s displayed this season should put her right in the mix for victory.

Also worth considering is #2 Daddy Is a Legend, who finished just a half-length behind Rushing Fall when third in the Edgewood. Last time out, the daughter of Scat Daddy parlayed a good trip into a decisive two-length victory in the Lake George Stakes (gr. II) here at Saratoga, for which she earned an eye-catching 102 BRIS speed figure. #4 Significant Form, fourth in the Belmont Oaks for trainer Chad Brown, also has solid form lines and could be in contention for a spot in the exotics.

$5 exacta: 1 with 2,4,6 ($15) $2 exacta: 2 with 1,4,6 ($6) $1.5 trifecta: 1 with 2,4,6 with 2,4,6 ($9)

Good luck!
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