Homeracing

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2 - February 6, 2014

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Matt Carter

February 7th, 2014

Thursday is the first day of the second Future Wager Pool for the 2014 Kentucky Derby and as the field starts to take shape, you can bet what horse will win and which horses will make up the exacta in the Run for Roses on May 3rd. Let's take a look at some historical data from the last four years and which horses to focus on this year.

First, this year is a little different as the first pool was in November. In past years, this weekend's pool would have been Future Pool 1. In the last four years, twice the field wager won the first pool and twice there was an individual horse that won. The exacta is an interesting wager because if an individual betting interest does not win, the exacta would pay the "field" to the first individual horses. Last year the first two finishers were part of the field pool so the future exacta wager paid out to the horse that finished third. Most future exacta wagers should include the field, unless you're feeling lucky.

CAIRO PRINCE could not have been any more professional in winning the Holy Bull in his 2014 debut and is the lowest of the individual horses in the field. The only horse to defeat the son of Pioneerof the Nile was HONOR CODE, who is the second betting choice in the field. HONOR CODE is trained by Shug McGaughey, who won the Kentucky Derby last year with Orb. CAIRO PRINCE has the breeding to run well in the Derby; his sire was second in 2009, his sire-sire was second in 2003 and his dam sire was the betting favorite for the Derby in 1991, but finished 12th. Some long shots to check out are CALIFORNIA CHROME, CANDY BOY, COMMISSIONER, MIDNIGHT HAWK, TONALIST and TOP BILLING. CALIFORNIA CHROME is a Cal-bred and up against it breeding wise, but he could not have been more impressive in his last two. CANDY BOY is another California-based horse and has not run since finishing second to SHARED BELIEF in the Cash Call at Hollywood Park. SHARED BELIEF is also in the future wager and a perfect three-for-three, but reports have not been good. COMMISSIONER has won two straight for trainer Todd Pletcher and looks like a horse that will love the ten furlongs. TOP BILLING finished second behind COMMISSIONER then went on to win an allowance race in late January. MIDNIGHT HAWK just won the Grade 3 Sham and the Bob Baffert trainee looks to have a bright future. He has speed and can finish. Baffert and jockey Mike Smith are due. TONALIST just broke his maiden and his next race is still up in the air, but he is another bred to run all day.

It's never too early to start handicapping for the Kentucky Derby and this weekend, you can wager on it. The pool closes on Saturday at 6:00 pm ET, which is one hour before MIDNIGHT HAWK and CANDY BOY are scheduled to run in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
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