Late Pick 4 Analysis for Saturday Afternoon at Del Mar- July 28th
The second Saturday of the 2018 Del Mar summer meeting offers racing fans several great wagering opportunities, including a late Pick 4 that commences in Race 7 with the $150,000 California Dreamin and concludes with a maiden special weight event over the sod for two-year-olds.
Here are my thoughts:
Race 7: The California Dreamin Stakes
This mile and a sixteenth event for California-Bred or California Sired runners drew a full field and offers horseplayers several ways to go. I will spread and hope to catch one of the longer prices I decided to include.
#1 What A View takes the big drop out of graded stakes company into a state-bred race and merits serious consideration, but he will likely have to run hard the entire way given the speed drawn to his outside.
#2 Grecian Fire returns to the lawn after racing over the dirt and synthetic over his past three starts for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. He is just 1 for 8 on the grass, but this barn is too hot to leave off. The fact the “Dorf” attracted Mike Smith adds to the appeal.
#4 Pee Wee Reese has not been seen since New Years’ Day at Santa Anita when he wired out a field of open company runners down the hill in a non-graded stakes event. He is likely to get into a battle early on with What A View. The question is will one of them give way to the other, will they run 1-2 around the track or will they both stop in the lane setting things up for an off the pace type.
#6 Camino Del Paraiso is a gelding that could take advantage if they go at it early. The son of Suances has a win and a third in 3 tries over the Jimmy Durante Turf Course and should be rolling late under veteran jockey Rafael Bejarano.
#7 Fly to Mars showed that he can stalk off the early pace around two turns in his last race on June 10th at Santa Anita. A similar effort puts him in the mix in the California Dreamin.
#8 B Squared may struggle to get the mile and a sixteenth distance, but he has run some big races and should sit a great stalking trip for trainer Doug O’Neill.
#10 Soi Phet has won 15 of 59 and has a ton of heart as evidenced by two straight narrow victories for trainer Leonard Powell. He does draw a tough outside post though and loses Kent Desormeaux to What a View. Winning three in a row will be a massive challenge for the ten-year-old.
A non-winners of two $16K claimer run at six furlongs over the main track is up next.
#10 Sing A Solo draws favorably to the outside, which should give her a tactical advantage on the other speeds in this conditional claimer, but three-quarters of a mile may be a bit too far for the daughter of Creative Cause. I will include though at 15-1.
#9 Neon Gypsy cuts back a half furlong, draws well to the outside, and goes from turf to dirt for trainer Bob Hess, Jr. She should get the right trip under Evin Roman making her a must use.
The same can be said of #12 Calimonco Action other than she is likely better served at slightly shorter distances.
If the race collapses, #6 Topaz Time is the likeliest to take advantage. The five-year-old mare tried tougher competition in her first try versus winners down the hill in mid-June, but now gets back to a more realistic level and returns to a surface she has done her best running over.
Race 9: Bing Crosby Stakes, Grade 1
A very strong rendition of the $300,000 is led by the presence of 2017 champion sprinter, #3 Roy H. The Peter Miller trainee has not been seen since a third-place finish in late March in the Grade 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. Despite the time off, the son of More Than Ready appears all set for his return to the races based on a strong series of drills dating back to June 10th.
will be tough to beat, but I will double up in the race with #9 Edwards Going Left. The California-bred is 2 for 3 over the Del Mar main track, draws well to the outside and attracts the services of hot riding Drayden Van Dyke. The John Sadler barn is red hot to start the meet and the 10-1 morning line price is extremely attractive and will provide separation in the sequence.
The finale is a challenging maiden event going two turns on the green. I will take a shot and single #8 Forloveofcountry. The Virginia bred sold for $300,000 at the OBS March 2018 two-year-old in training sale and is a half-brother to Rapid Rhythm who won 8 of 21 over the lawn earning $258K. He is eligible for the “Ship and Win” bonus since he ran in a race washed off the turf at Churchill Downs in June in what was likely a prep for this spot. If Evin Roman can avoid significant ground loss from the outside I like this colt’s chances on the stretch out for trainer James DiVito. At 9-2 or higher I will also bet to Win.
Pick 4 ($1)
Race 7: 1+2+4+6+7+8
Race 8: 6+9+10+12
Race 9: 3+9
Race 10: 8