Homeracing

Molly Jo's Musings on #Million32

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Molly Jo Rosen

August 16th, 2014

There are three days every year where the best runners ship from around the world & meet in a starting gate: Dubai World Cup (March), Arlington Million (August), and Breeders' Cup (November).

And this year's Arlington Million card is a seemingly impossible-to-solve handicapping puzzle. There are 7 straight stakes and - for multi-race exotics players - probably not a single in the sequence.

But that doesn't mean we don't try!

But first! A reminder that we at BetAmerica have an absolutely awesome promotion today:

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Don't forget to check Scratches & Changes and the forecast according to the National Weather Service is: a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. 

So here goes... my take on the #Million32 card...

Arlington Park race 5 | 3:39 pm ET Hatoof for 3yo F going 1-1/16 mi. (1st Division) $2 Win / Place / Show / $2 Daily Double (5-6) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (5-7)
Table id 5 not found
Arlington Park race 6 | 4:12 pm ET Straight Line for 3yo going 1 mi. (A) $2 Win / Place / Show / $2 Daily Double (6-7) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (6-8) / $1 Pick 6 (6-11)
Table id 6 not found
Arlington Park race 7 | 4:45 pm ET American St. Leger for 3&up going 1-1/16 mi. (T) $2 Win / Place / Show / $2 Daily Double (7-8) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (7-9) $0.50 All-Stakes Mid Pick 4 (7-10)
Table id 7 not found
It might as well be Musical Saddles for the English/Irish contingent in the American St. Leger since Joe O'Brien can't ride at 121lbs (or 119 as in the case in a few other races), Ryan Moore takes over on Eye of the Storm which moves Frankie Dettori to Dandino. At least Jamie Spencer stays on Moment In Time. 

Arlington Park race 8 | 5:15 pm ET G1 Secretariat for 3yo going 1-1/4 mi. (T) $2 Win / Place / Show / $2 Daily Double (8-9) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (8-10) $0.50 Pick 5 (8-12)
Table id 8 not found
Arlington Park race 9 | 5:54 pm ET G1 Beverly D. for 3&up F&M going 1-3/16 mi. (T) $2 Win / Place / Show / $2 Daily Double (9-10) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (9-11) / $0.50 Late Pick 4
Table id 9 not found
This is officially the hardest race to handicap I've seen all year. It's like playing Pin the Tail on the Pony at a state fair: pick a filly/mare, any filly/mare. Maybe it's not the absolute best ladies in the world, but it's a really evenly matched group ~ I'm thinking someone wins it by a pole or there's like four noses in a really tight photo ~ on paper, it sets up to be legendary.

Arlington Park race 10 | 6:36 pm ET G1 Arlington Million for 3&up going 1-1/4 mi. (T) $2 Win / Place / Show / $2 Daily Double (10-11) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (10-12)
Table id 10 not found

The question is which Magician shows up: the Breeders' Cup Turf winner or the lackluster sixth place finisher in the King George at Ascot  last out. If it's the former, you'd think everyone else is running for second.

The horse who's most intriguing is the Malcom Pierce-trained Up With the Birds: this 4yo son of Stormy Atlantic ran big efforts in the Queens Plate and Breeders' Stakes at classic/marathon distances last year and ran a very big effort in the Nijinksy over his home Woodbine turf. Though he's never gone the 1-1/4 mi. on turf, he was 2nd by a half-length in the Queens Plate to Midnight Aria last year on the Polytrack.

A lot of attention is being paid to Smoking Sun, the Kentucky-bred, French-trained son of Smart Strike who has looked absolutely sensational since exiting quarantine this week. After a very solid career as an exotics key player in France, he was second in his first international foray behind a very nice runner in Dunboyne Expresss. There's also Side Glance, a leggy gelding piloted by Jamie Spencer: the pair has been decent against some of the best runners in Australia and England, though the son of Passing Glance tends to fall just short in the States.

But what of the American contingent? Hardest Core just feels a notch below the rest of this group.  Dale Romans has done a great job with Finnegans Wake, but he's just not consistent enough to rely on; that said: he does seem to get much better over the summer months. And what about Real Solution? He's nearly undefeated at the distance and did win last year's Million, albeit via DQ; his last two efforts over the Belmont lawn suggest he's a threat in the Turf division this year.

Arlington Park race 11 | 7:18 pm ET Hatoof for 3yo F going 1-1/16 mi. (2nd Division) $2 Win / Place / Show / $2 Daily Double (11-12) / $2 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Jackpot High 5
Table id 11 not found
TICKETS

So with all that said... how would I play some of these cool multi-leg wagers?

Race 6 | $1 Pick 6 | 3,6 / 2,9,10,11 / 6,7 / 2,4,8,11 / 3,5 / 3 ... $128 total

Race 7 | $.50 all-stakes Pick 4 with a $200k guaranteed pool | 2,9,10,11 / 6,7 / 2,4,5,8,9,11 / 3,5 ... $48 total

Race 7 | $.50 all-stakes Pick 4 with a $200k guaranteed pool | 2,9,10,11 / 3,6,7,9 / 2,4,5,8,9,11 / 3,5 ... $96 total

Race 8 | .$50 Pick 5 with a $100k guaranteed pool | 6,7 / 2,4,8,11 / 3,5 / 3,10 / 3,7,10 ... $48 total

Race 8 | .$50 Pick 5 with a $100k guaranteed pool | 6,7 / 2,4,5,8,9,11 / 3,5 / 3,10 / 3,7,10 ... $72 total

Race 9 | .50 late Pick 4 | 2,4,8,11 / 3,5 / 3,10 / 3,7,10 ... $24 total

Race 9 | .50 late Pick 4 | ALL / 3,5 / 3,10 / 3,7,10 ... $66 total

Race 11 | $1 Jackpot High 5 | 3 / 1,9,10 / 1,9,10 / 1,9,10 / 2,4,5,6,7,8 ... $162 total