Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Aqueduct 11/23/2014

Profile Picture: D.S. Williamson

D.S. Williamson

November 22nd, 2014

Sunday’s feature at the Big A is a $57,000 Allowance for 3 and up fillies and mares. Out of the 10 entrants, 5 of the horses are at morning line odds of 3 to 1 to 6 to 1. An overlay or two definitely exists in the eighth at Aqueduct on Sunday.

Aqueduct Racetrack 8 | 3:43 pm ET

Allowance (57) 3&Up F&M going 6.5f

1 – Ms. Sylvia A – 9/2 – This three-year-old filly sired by First Defense has a decent 2 wins and 1 second place finish from 5 lifetime starts. She ran decently enough in her last race, a second place finish by 6 lengths after going 5 wide in the upper stretch, in a $62,000 state-bred allowance at Belmont Park. That race occurred in mid-September. Since then, she’s worked four times including a 4 furlong bullet on Oct. 27 over the Belmont dirt in :47.1. It was the best work out of 62 at the 4 furlong distance on that day. Trainer Michelle Nevin, who is winning at 30% at the meet, is extremely capable with these types. She wins 26% with her runners racing over a sprint distance and 25% with runners going for her after a 46 to 90 day layoff. Even though jockey Larry Mejias hasn’t had a great Aqueduct meet, Nevin and he do have a winner together in the past 60 days. The betting odds should be decent enough to put a few bucks on Ms. Sylvia A to win.

4 – Court Dancer – 3/1 – Although the morning line chalk has only a single victory on her resume, she could be very difficult to beat in this race. Court Dancer ran off fractions of :22.3 for the quarter mile and :46.3 for the half in a race over the slop at Aqueduct on Nov. 1. She went off at around 7/2 to win that day and finished second by 3 lengths. The switch from jockey Mike Luzzi to Joel Rosario will only help her chances. She’s also showing a brilliant work at Belmont on Nov. 16, 4 furlongs in :48.1, which was the best of 47 that day. Rosario should be able to keep her close to the pace. If he does, she might be able to win this going away, but the field is deep and her odds figure to be no better than her morning line of 3/1 in this event. She’ll be tough, but by no means is she a lock.

10 – Sherrifa – 6/1 – There is a lot to like about this 6 to 1 morning line Linda Rice trained three-year-old filly. She appears to have enough speed to keep up with the front-runners if the pace is slow. Not only that, but Rice keeps her at the allowance level even though she lost by 6.5 lengths in her first for Rice. Rice wins 20% with horses going second time after the claim. She’s winning 21% at the current Aqueduct meet and the Cornelio Velasquez and Linda Rice jockey/trainer combo has been hot recently with 3 wins, 1 second, and 3 third place finishes from 12 races. Velasquez figures to put this one into perfect position for the win. Those who believe could find worse choices than Sherrifa this considering that the off odds might be north of the morning line.
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