Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Aqueduct 12/27/2014

Profile Picture: D.S. Williamson

D.S. Williamson

December 26th, 2014

Race 8 at Aqueduct on Saturday is a super competitive affair among horses entered in a high-level optional claimer going 1 mile and 70 yards. The morning line chalk at 3/1, Israal, breaks from the disadvantageous post-position 10. The race looks like it might set up for a long shot winner.

Aqueduct Race 8 – 3:43 PM ET

OC (62.5) for 3&Up going 1 mi. 70 yrds

4-Moneyinyour Pocket – 15/1 – This 6 from 28 races lifetime winner has finished second in 2 straight races including finishing second in his last, a 1 1/8 mile affair over the Aqueduct inner dirt. Moneyinyour Pocket went off at close to 17 to 1 in that race and figures to go off at close to the same odds in this event on Saturday. Jockey Ruben Silvera put the five-year-old gelding on the lead that day. Front-running race tactics figure to be the strategy that Silvera uses in this event because even though there are a lot of early presser types, none of Moneyinyour Pocket’s competition is likely to want the lead. A record of 4 wins and a second from 8 races at the distance means that the five-year-old gelded son of Raffie’s Majesty might be in line to reward backers with overlay profits.

7-Spa City Fever – 4/1 – Trainer David Jacobsen switches jockeys from Cornelio Velasquez to Angel Cruz for this close to $600K lifetime winner’s run in the eighth on Saturday at the Big A. Cruz might fit Spa City Fever just better since the eight-year-old gelding wants to run closer to the pace than he did in his last and Cruz figures to let him breathe a bit more on the backstretch. Jacobsen wins 25% with horses running over the dirt, 23% with his route runners and 25% at this meet. The classy gelding only has 1 win from 14 starts at the distance, though, meaning that using underneath is an absolute must, but putting on top for the victory, especially if the Jacobsen trainee keeps the morning line odds or the odds go lower.

5-Erik the Red – 6/1 – If the pace is too quick, this Into Mischief sired, Linda Rice trained, four-year-old gelding should be right there to pick up the pieces. Erik the Red has 2 wins, 1 second place, and 4 third place finishes from 8 lifetime races. There appears to be quite a bit of upside to the $118+ lifetime winner. Jockey J.L. Ortiz sticks with the gelding and the last two races were over the slop. He’s never raced at this distance but 2 wins, a second, and a third place finish from 4 lifetime races means that Erik the Red might take a big step up returning to his likely favorite surface.
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