Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Arlington for 7/26/2014

Profile Picture: Molly Jo Rosen

Molly Jo Rosen

July 26th, 2014

by Ryan Dickey

Arlington Park 7 | 4:11 pm ET Addison Cammack Handicap for 3 yo+ going 6f (A)

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 9-Work All Week

This horse has been the post-time favorite in nine of his twelve career races (odds-on favorite in 8), has four 100+ Beyers, and last time out beat a G1 winner.  He hasn’t finished worse than second in his three Arlington Park starts, and has seven wins in eight tries at six furlongs.  Everything points to him being the horse to beat, but that’s exactly what one must try to do to make any money in this race.  There are at least two options to do so.  Bet on top in exotics and in multi-race bets if you must, but trying to beat this favorite is the way to go.

VALUE HORSE: 4-Mish Mosh

The horse that may benefit from some other horses being sent out front early is Mish Mosh.  He’s not exactly a closer, but rates well off the pace as a presser.  His recent form does not show any real promise, but the angle here is his record at Arlington Park (9 races, 7 wins, and one place) and his expected trip.  The Ramseys claimed this one back and again have Mike Maker training, and Maker has had this horse hit the board 50% of the time this year.  At 8-1 on the morning line, he has definite value here at his prefered track.  Play on top in exotics and in multi-race bets.

OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 8-Sir Applesolutely and 3-Four Left Feet

If the projected pace of this race sets up well for Mish Mosh, it certainly holds well for Sir Applesolutely as well.  More of a true closer than Mish Mosh, look for both horses to be battling Work All Week near the wire.  This race may resemble the results of last September 19th’s race 6 at Arlington Park where Mish Mosh, Sir Applesolutely, and Four Left Feet finished 1-2-3, but the addition of Work All Week (one of the three or four true “speed” horses in this race) will make the dynamics a bit different.  In this edition, Mish Mosh and Sir Applesolutely will not be near the lead, as they were last year.

Four Left Feet (one of my favorite horse names) has a knack for hitting the board in stakes races, but not necessarily winning them.  He’s good to use in exotics, but can be left off multi-race bets.

WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $20 PLAYERS $2 WIN/PLACE 4,8 ($8) $2 Exacta 4,8 over 3,4,8,9 ($12--total $20)

WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $50 PLAYERS $5 WIN 4,8 ($10) $2 Exacta box 4,8 ($4) $2 Exacta 4,8 over 3,4,8,9 ($12) $1 Trifecta Box 3,4,8,9 ($24-total $50)
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