Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Arlington Park for 9/13/2014

Profile Picture: Ryan Dickey

Ryan Dickey

September 13th, 2014

by Ryan Dickey  

Arlington 8| 5:45 pm ET

G3 Pucker Up Stakes for 3 yo Fillies going 1-⅛ mi. (T)  

 

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 9-Aurelia’s Belle

The morning line favorite at 2-1 is the best of the bunch on paper, finishing in the money in 6 of 7 graded stakes this year (the only time missing was a disappointing 9th, 24+ lengths behind Untapable in the Kentucky Oaks).  She won the G3 Bourbonette Oaks and the G3 Arlington Park Oaks, but neither were on turf.  She was placed 1st via DQ in her lone turf start this year in the G3 Regret at Churchill Downs.  This is her first try on AP’s turf course, she’s going to be the post-time favorite, but her short price, and outside post makes her a play against.  She has what it takes to beat them all, but the reward is not rich enough.  Play in multi-race bets, and on top in back-up bets if you must.

VALUE HORSE: 3-Kiss Moon

The 2014 edition of the Hatoof Stakes on Arlington Million Day was run in two divisions.  Kiss Moon won one of those races (AP 11 8/16/2014).  The other division winner starts to Kiss Moon’s inside (2-Annulment).  Although the Hatoof is not a true “prep” for this race, 4 of the 9 entries here ran in those two races last month.  Of those, the pick of the litter is Kiss Moon.  This is her 5th graded stakes race, and she participated in many of the Kentucky Oaks preps this spring, but was just not G1 material, as she finished 12th on the first Friday in May at Churchill Downs.  Her change from dirt to turf looks like the right call, as she finished 4th in the G3 Regret in her first try on the grass, and won last time out in the Hatoof on AP’s turf course.  She brings value to the table with a lot of money expected on the 8 and 9 horse.  Play on top in exotics and multi-race wagers, and expect to be paid handsomely should she pull off the upset.

OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 7- Sistas Stroll and 8-Stellaris

Sistas Stroll is taking a big jump up in class, but has the speed figures against lesser foes that may put her in contention.  She would be a surprise winner to be sure, but this race should tell us what this horse is made of.  Play underneath in exotics for a price.  

Stellaris may just be the race winner, and is therefore the play.  Starting in the 8 spot, her closest rival will be the only horse outside of her in the starting gate.  It will take a great ride from James Graham, but he is more than capable of providing such.  He’s winning at a 22% clip at Arlington, and has never missed the board riding Stellaris.  Trainer Michael Stidham is having a great year at Arlington Park (and everywhere else) and the two of them combined have done well together. Her effort in the G1 Del Mar Oaks in her turf debut could be the sign that she may become a force in the Fillies & Mares turf division as soon as next year. She may be no better than 5/2 odds, but she is the better bet than Aurelia’s Belle.  Play on top with confidence.

WAGERING STRATEGY FOR $20 PLAYERS:

$4 WIN 8 ($4)

$2 Exacta 8 over 3,7,9 ($6)

$0.50 Trifecta box 3,7,8,9 ($12--total $22)

WAGERING STRATEGY FOR $50 PLAYERS:

$20 WIN 8 ($20)

$2 Exacta 8 over 3,7,9 ($6)

$1 Trifecta box 3,7,8,9 ($24--total $50)
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