Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Belmont for 7/6/2014

Profile Picture: Molly Jo Rosen

Molly Jo Rosen

July 6th, 2014

by Ryan Dickey

Belmont 7 | 4:26 pm ET Claiming (25) for 3 yo+ going 1 mile

A $25,000 claiming race at Belmont on a Sunday afternoon features what should be a slam-dunk winner.

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: 2-Love to Run (4-1)

Love to Run finds himself in a great spot in this race, dropping in class from the ranks of $50,000 claimers to try to get a huge chunk of this $47,000 purse.  The horse flat-out did not fire fifteen days ago in his first start since November of last year.  It’s obvious that he needed the race, because his work tabs have been solid.  The five year old gelding by Pulpit has three wins (and three shows) in his eight career starts at Belmont and is 5--2-0-1 at the mile distance.  He should easily win this race with Junior Alvarado on board.  Play straight-up, on-top of exotics, and as a single in multi-race bets.

VALUE HORSE: 9-Beeliner (12-1)

Another horse dropping in class to try to get a piece here today is Beeliner.  Draw a line through his races in allowance company, and you have a solid mid-level claimer, that brings value to this race off the class-drop at 12-1.  He has two wins and a place in eight races at the mile distance, and is looking for his first win on the Belmont track in his fourth start here.  Play underneath Love to Run, to try to fill out exactas, and trifectas.

OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 5-Dynamical (3-1) and 7-Springcourt (7-2)

Dynamical looks good on paper, and has the back-class to compete at this level, but is making his Belmont debut, and only has a place and show finish in his two tries at 1 mile in his 21-race career.  He can get a piece, but even Rosario can’t make him a winner here.  Play underneath.

If anyone other than Love to Run wins this race, it will be Springcourt. Moving up the claiming ranks, this horse is truly a miler.  He has finished first or second in eight of his twelve mile-long races.  Add to that his stellar performance over the Belmont track (8 starts, 3 wins, 4 places), and you have the second-best contender in this race.  Play with Love to Run and Beeliner in trifectas.

WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $20 PLAYERS $5 WIN 2 ($5) $2 Exacta 2 over 5,7,9 ($6) $1 Trifecta box 2,7,9 ($6--total $21)

WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $50 PLAYERS $10 WIN/PLACE 2 ($20) $2 Exacta 2 over 5,7,9 ($6) $1 Trifecta box 2,5,7,9 ($24--total $50)
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