Homeracing

Player Quick Pick - Belmont Park 10/25/2014

Profile Picture: D.S. Williamson

D.S. Williamson

October 24th, 2014

A beautiful sunny day is expected in Elmont, NY on Saturday. The feature, the Grade 3 Bold Ruler, should be a great race, but the better betting race might actually be Race 8, the Chelsea Flower Stakes.

Belmont Park 8 | 4:27 pm ET

Chelsea Flower 2yoF going 1 mi. (T)

6 – Miss Chatelaine – 3/1 – This Pulpit sired filly that Highland Yard purchased at the Sept. 2013 Keeneland Sale for $200K was absolutely brilliant in her race debut. Under the guidance of Rajiv Maragh, Miss Chatelaine stalked the pace about two off before taking over in the stretch and breaking her maiden by 2.25 lengths. She finished up a mile on the Belmont turf in 1:35.3. Jockey Joel Rosario takes the call since Rajiv is still recovering from the spill that happened in the Jockey Gold Cup. Rosario is winning races at 29% at this Belmont meet. When he hooks up with Miss Chatelaine’s trainer, the awesome Christophe Clement, Joel is very difficult to beat. Clement’s last out maiden winners get into the money 60% of the time in their next race. They win their next race 23% of the time and she appears to be more talented than most of her competition in this. Miss Chatelaine should be the chalk, but this is one race where going against the chalk doesn’t make a lot of sense.

2 – Skinner Box – 12/1 – I’m not sure why this Richard Violette trainee is at 12/1 morning line odds. The guess here is that the off odds will be cut in half, to 6 to 1, because even though she failed miserably in her last, she finished third in the race before that one, the Grade 2 Natalma at Woodbine. Since she’s only a two-year-old, she had every right to bounce in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo. She had to break from post-position 11 in that one and she brushed the gate. Horseplayers should also note that the Miss Grillo is run at 1 1/16 miles while the Chelsea Flower is run at a mile. Skinner Brox broke her maiden going 5.5 furlongs off the turf in her debut. She then had the great third place finish in the Grade 2 Natalma before the failure in the Miss Grillo. She’s been training well enough to believe that a bounce back to her previous great form could be in the works here.

9 – Path – 9/2 – Any improvement should give the Shug McGaughey trained daughter of Tapit a real shot to win the Chelsea Flower on Saturday. After failing at 6 furlongs in the mud at Saratoga, Shug put this one onto the turf in a 1 1/16 mile race at Belmont Park where she closed from 6.5 furlongs behind at the first call to only a head behind at the second call. Then, it was all over save for the shouting as jockey Javier Castellano, who sticks with her here, guided Path to a neck victory as the chalk. She could very well go off the favorite in this if enough horseplayers believe that improvement is a foregone conclusion. She’s got a huge shot at the victory. So, put her on all of your tickets.
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