Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Belmont Park 10/26/2014

Profile Picture: D.S. Williamson

D.S. Williamson

October 24th, 2014

Sunday’s feature at Big Sandy is the Grade 3 Turnback the Alarm Handicap for a purse of $200K. Some great 3 and up fillies and mares will contest the long one turn mile and one sixteenth of the Turnback the Alarm on Sunday. Is there an overlay amongst the field worth horseplayers’ attention?

Belmont Park 9 | 4:58 pm ET

Grade 3 Turnback the Alarm H. for F&M 3&Up going 1-1/16 mi.

6 – Endless Chatter – 7/2 – The third place finish in the Grade 1 Beldame Invitational broke a three race win streak for this daughter of First Samurai who has 4 wins, 3 second place, and 2 third place finishes from 10 lifetime starts. Endless Chatter’s only off the board finish was in her second lifetime race, a $62K maiden special weight event. Since then, she’s been money as far as the key in the exotics is concerned. Nobody in this field is close to being as talented as the two top finishers in the Beldame, Belle Gallantrey, who could win the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in about a week now that Beholder has withdrawn, and Stopchargingmaria. She can lie right off or close and jockey Joel Rosario is winning races at 29% at Belmont Park.

5 – Teen Pauline – 3/1 – The morning line chalk might have everything go her way up front if Rosario aboard Endless Chatter doesn’t push as soon as they break from the gate. Teen Pauline, a Todd Pletcher trainee that has won 5 of 11 races and close to $500K, knows how to run only one way and that’s on the lead. She’s undefeated at the distance and has been training decently enough in the mornings to give the impression that she’s going to run well in this. There is one thing to worry about, though. Teen Pauline is 0 and 2 at Belmont Park. The reason that it’s important to note is because 1-1/16 miles is run around one turn at Belmont. Teen Pauline might just be a better two turn horse than a one turn horse. In any case, Pletcher wins 27% with horses coming back to the races off of a layoff of 90 days or more. He wins 29% with horses that won their previous race. Because of those stats, Teen Pauline should be taken very seriously in the Turnback the Alarm Handicap on Sunday.

2 – Dame Dorothy – 4/1 – This Pletcher trainee jumps into a graded race after winning a $75K stakes in her last. She certainly looks capable of winning this for a number of reasons. First, she is undefeated in 3 starts. Second, she broke her maiden at Aqueduct, won a race over the slop at Gulfstream Park going 1-1/16 miles and then won the stakes race at Presque Isle Downs over an artificial surface going 1-1/16 miles. Third, she definitely has the ability to win this Grade 3 as evidenced by the work on Oct. 20 and the fact that they purchased her for $390,000 at the 2012 Keeneland September Sale. If the price is right, if the odds on Dame Dorothy drifts higher than the morning line, horseplayers should seriously considering backing her for the win slot.
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