Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Churchill Downs for 9/20/2014

Profile Picture: Ryan Dickey

Ryan Dickey

September 20th, 2014

by Ryan Dickey  

Churchill Downs 9| 4:55 pm ET

G3 Dogwood Stakes for 3 yo F going 7f  

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 2-Fiftyshadesofgold

There is a very nice stakes race for three year old fillies today, not named the Cotillion, and it is at Churchill Downs.  The easy choice in the Dogwood is Fiftyshadesofgold, but by post-time, she should not represent much value, unless you can string some high-priced runners behind her.  Throw out her race two back at Belmont as it was in the slop.  Her last effort was a 4th place finish in the G1 Test at Saratoga, in which she was game for all but the last half-furlong.  The quick early pace may have sapped her a bit.  But looking at today’s competition, she’s the class of the field, has a favorable post, and the distance is right in her wheelhouse.  Don’t expect a windfall on her with a win bet.  To make money, you’ll have to look to the exotics.  

VALUE HORSE: 7-Thank You Marylou

Thank You Marylou is probably the second-most likely to win this race, and one can only hope the money on Fiftyshadesofgold helps with this Maker-trained, Ramsey-owned filly’s post-time odds.  At 4-1 on the morning line, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that she could drift to 5-1 or 6-1.  Considering she hasn’t hit the board since the G1 Ashland at Keeneland in the first week of April, she might be a bit under the radar, with “wiseguys” playing someone other than the favorite.  She has won at this distance in a stakes race before, but threw a clunker at 7 furlongs in the G1 Test.  Her best chance is to put a target on the back of Fiftyshadesofgold, and be given the chance to overtake her near the wire.  Play on top of exotics and in multi-race bets.

OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 4-Milam and 10- Mizzen Miss

Milam is racing in what appears to be the upper-reaches of her class, G3 competition.  She has hit the board in two of the three previous tries in G3 graded stakes.  She’s never won at this distance, but finished second to Fiftyshadesofgold in the 7 furlong G3 Eight Belles the first weekend of May here at Churchill Downs.  Expect her to be bet, and expect her to be the second-favorite at post-time.  Play her underneath in exotics.  

Mizzen Miss is the horse that can make betting Fiftyshadesofgold profitable if she finishes second to that favorite.  She’s won three in a row, but this is her first shot at a stakes race.  The far outside post, and layoff since mid-July in her last race in Indiana doesn’t seem too promising, but she has shown heart, and that goes a long way.  At 15-1, she could be the price exotic bettors are always looking for.

WAGERING STRATEGY FOR $20 PLAYERS:

$2 WIN 7 ($2)

$2 Exacta 2,7 over 2,4,7,10 ($12)

$0.50 Trifecta 2,7 over 2,4,7,10 over 2,4,7,10 ($6--total $20)  

WAGERING STRATEGY FOR $50 PLAYERS:

$6 WIN/PLACE 7 ($12)

$2 WIN 10 ($2)

$2 Exacta 2,7 over 2,4,7,10 ($12)

$1 Trifecta box 2,4,7,10 ($24--total $50)
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