Homeracing

Player Quick Pick for 3/2/2014

Profile Picture: Molly Jo Rosen

Molly Jo Rosen

March 2nd, 2014

by D.S. Williamson

Best Bet – Race 5 – $75,000, Caixa Electronica,

6 furlongs for Four Year Olds and Up

4 – Hardened Wildcat – 8/1 – There appears to be a lot of speed in this race.  We just saw yesterday how one of the best three-year-old sprinters in the world, No Nay Never, got beat by a 9/1 to shot closer in Spot after a 44.49 half.  Hardened Wildcat might not be as good of a closer as Spot, but the gelding does go first time for trainer Kelly Breen, a 26% winning move, and his best races have been off of a layoff.

6 - Songa – 6/1- All of the speed is to the inside of this lightly raced four-year-old trained by Mario Morales.  This colt broke its maiden over the Gulfstream dirt and improvement could definitely occur here since this will be Songa’s sixth lifetime race.  Jockey Luis Saez will be counted on to time his move perfectly.  The speed ratings keep going up and this is a logical move after that stunning 7 ½ length victory in an allowance at Calder in his last.  If he fails, he can always go back to the allowance ranks.

2-Dad’z Laugh – 3/1 – Ribo Bobo, the 6/5 morning line chalk, gets the rail.  The chalk has won 16 out of 49 lifetime races, making him formidable, but Dad’z Laugh gets the advantage because he breaks just to the outside of Ribo Bobo.  Jockey Javier Castellano will try and outrun the favorite from the outset.  Ribo Bobo could bounce off of that terrific victory in the Sunshine Millions Sprint making this one look like a winner at the top of the stretch before Hardened Wildcat and Songa come running.

Grade III Herecomesthebride Stakes – Race 9 - $100,000

1 1/8 miles turf, For Fillies Three Year Olds

7-Raging Atlantic – 10/1 – Trainer Mike Maker dug into the pocketbooks’ of owners Cardinal Stables and picked up this Kitten’s Joy progeny for $75,000 in her maiden score.  She then almost won a $75,000 optional claimer for the new connections in her last.  She has the speed to stay close if needed and has shown the ability to close from off the pace.  Maker is winning 31% of his races at the current Gulfstream meet and he wins at 37% with horses going second time for him off of the claim.

3-Valseuse – 10/1 – It’s difficult for me to see this Cristophe Clement trainee going off at 10/1 in this.  Yes, she runs in the Herecomesthebride Stakes after a maiden score, but that maiden score was at1 1/16 miles over the Gulfstream lawn.  How many three-year-old fillies can do that?  Plus, Clement gets 24% winners first time off of the maiden win and she was sired by Kitten’s Joy out of a Royal Academy dam meaning she’s bred to be a grass monster.  My fair odds put her at 4/1 in this.

2-Candy Kitten – 3/1 – She’s talented but it’s not clear if she’s any more talented than either Valseuse or Raging Atlantic.  She might just be a really had trier as evidenced by her last victory, a length win over Miss Besilu in a $100,000 stakes race.  This doesn’t set up very well for her, but she’s got guts meaning that she’s a must use.  Still, chalk bettors shouldn’t take short odds since the field came up tough.
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