Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Keeneland for 4/6/2014

Profile Picture: Molly Jo Rosen

Molly Jo Rosen

April 6th, 2014

by Ryan Dickey

Keeneland 8 | 4:42 pm ET Allowance for 3yo F going 1 mi. (T)

A high-risk/high-reward approach to a fillies turf race that may pay well.

MOST PROBABLE WINNER:  12-Party Now

She is deserving of being a 7-2 morning line favorite.  Plenty to like: just missed winning a $100k stakes race at this distance last time out, has raced at Keeneland before (though not on the turf course),  and put up a bullet work last time training.  She has progressed well in her three career starts, and her most recent speed figures are better than most in this field.  She could easily win.  Put her in exotics and multi-race bets, but be advised that we’re going to try to beat her here.

VALUE HORSE:  6-She’s Justified

Yes, she has one win to her credit, breaking her maiden in a $39k MSW at Gulfstream last time out.  Yes, this is a step up in class.  But watch her last race.  She fearlessly bid between the two race leaders, and ran them down.  That was her first turf start.  She belongs on the turf, and even though she’s up against some classier foes than her last race, the progression should be there.  I expect her to become a stakes winner at some point.  Today she wins an Allowance at Keeneland.  Bet her on top.  Hope she stays somewhere near her 6-1 morning line.

OTHERS TO CONSIDER:  11-Runway Giant & 10-Minorette

Runway Giant is a stakes horse.  She might be out of her league in graded stakes, but in non-graded stakes in the $75-$100k range, she can hold her own.  So you have to like her in allowance company.  Her speed figures are better than making her a 12-1 morning line shot here.  She has placed at this distance, and if new jock Goncalves can cure her of going wide (tough from the 11 gate, of course), she could bring some money to the table.  Put her high in exotics.

Minorette is coming from Aiden O’Brien’s barn to Chad Brown’s.  She was in over her head in a G3 race last time out, but can compete in stakes races, and finds herself in allowance company here. At 6-1 on the morning line, and with no speed figures readily available to North American handicappers, she may be overlooked. She is a workout queen in the mornings, look at her work tabs.  Play in exotics for a price.

WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $20 PLAYERS $4 WIN/PLACE 6 ($8) $1 Trifecta 6,12 with 6,10,11,12 with 6,10,11,12  ($12--total $20)

WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $50 PLAYERS $10 WIN 6 ($10) $2 Exacta ALL/6 ($24) $1 Trifecta 6,12 with 6,10,11,12 with 6,10,11,12  ($12) $2 Trifecta 6 with 10,11 with 10,11 ($4--total $50)

MULTI-RACE BETS KEENELAND R6 $1 Pick-4 2 over ALL over 6,12 over 7 ($18) KEENELAND R7 $1 Pick-3 ALL over 6,12 over 7 ($18)-- if 2 does not win R6
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