Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Lone Star for 4/26/2014

Profile Picture: Molly Jo Rosen

Molly Jo Rosen

April 26th, 2014

by Ryan Dickey

Lone Star race 8 | 10:51 pm ET G3 Texas Mile for 3 yo+ going 1 mi.

A nice assortment of stakes-winning horses in what can be a thrilling edition of the Texas Mile.  Three or four horses in the race have a legitimate shot of winning.

MOST PROBABLE WINNER:  5-Taptowne

A deserving morning line favorite for this race may or may not the the post-time favorite.  Both Taptowne and Bourbon Courage will be bet heavily, but expect short odds on Grand Contender as well.  Feeling that Calvin Borel up on Taptowne is THE difference-maker here.  Never use the “who’s the jock” angle to pick winners, but when it’s a close race like this, having a Hall Of Famer against the others here should be the edge.  Borel is 8-2-5-1 lifetime on this 6 year old Tapit gelding.  His last was the G3 Razorback Handicap, his first race after a layoff, in which he got out a bit slow, but raced well, being edged-out of second place.  Put him on top, and play in multi-race wagers.

VALUE HORSE:  4-Forest Mouse

Of the nine horses slated to go in this race, six of them have a legitimate shot to finish 1-2.  Although there will be better prices on the board to play underneath, Forest Mouse is most intriguing.  This horse has a nose for the wire.  In his 33 career starts, he has failed to be first or second ten times.  Although he hasn’t done well in G1 or G2 turf races, he IS a stakes horse.  At the distance he has three wins and a place in four starts.  He may be a notch below the other contenders, but his heart makes him a play.  Play underneath in exactas, in all exotics, and as a second-tier play in multi-race bets.

OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 3-Grand Contender and 6-Bourbon Courage

These two will get plenty of action alongside Taptowne.  They are the two most probable winners should Taptowne not win.  On their own merits, they are very good horses in what is shaping up to be a very good horse race.  Grand Contender may need some time off after this race, as he’s has one race per month since last August.  He’s put up 2 100+ Beyer figures in his last five races.  He has five wins in six tries at the distance, and has hit the board in 4 of his 5 career stakes races.  Definitely worth playing in exotics.

Bourbon Courage is solid, with speed figures that are good enough to win this race.  He’s cutting back a bit, alternating between 1-⅛ and 1-1/16th miles his last four races.  However, at 1 mile, he has one place in two starts.  He may as well be played in exotics, as a horse you don’t want to leave off your tickets, but as far as the top two favorites of the race, it’s best to have Taptowne on top.  Play Bourbon Courage as a second-tier horse in multi-race bets.

WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $20 PLAYERS $4 WIN/PLACE 5 ($8) $2 Exacta 5/3,4,6 ($6) $1 Trifecta 5 over 3,4,6 over 3,4,6 ($6--total $20)

WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $50 PLAYERS $10 WIN/PLACE 5 ($20) $5 Exacta 5/3,4,6 ($15) $2 Trifecta 5 with 3,4,6 with 3,4,6 ($12) $3 WIN 4 ($3--total $50)

MULTI-RACE BETS LONE STAR Race 6 $1 Pick-3 4,5,9 with 6, 10 with 3,4,5,6 ($24) LONE STAR Race 7 $10 Daily Double 10 with 5 ($10)
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