Homeracing

Player Quick Pick - Monmouth - 9/21/2014

Profile Picture: D.S. Williamson

D.S. Williamson

September 21st, 2014

By D.S. Williamson

The Monmouth Park turf was playing more than fair on Saturday. Hopefully, that fairness will translate to Sunday where the best race on which to bet looks to be Race 8 where 11 horses have entered into a 1 1/16 mile event on the lawn. The morning line favorite is Logan Street at 3 to 1, but the race is incredibly deep.

Monmouth Park 8 | 4:28 pm ET

Allowance (36) 3&Up going 1-1/16 mi. (T)

8 – Thunder Calls – 7/2 – It’s tough to look past this four-year-old gelding sired by Bernstein and conditioned by top trainer Jason Servis. Servis is winning at 28% at this meet. Thunder Calls accounts for two of Servis’s victories. In fact, the gelding has 2 wins and 2 second places in its last 4 races. Jockey Gabriel Saez retains the mount. Saez appears to fit this one like a glove. While he looked to keep Thunder Calls close to the pace in his previous races, Saez held the gelding 8 lengths off of the pace at the first call in the horse’s last. Thunder Calls won that event by 1.25 lengths. That ability to run different styles should serve Thunder Calls well in this event. If the pace is slow, Saez can put him right on the lead. If the pace is swift, Saez can take his time. Any odds at the morning line or higher make this guy a major overlay in this race.

4 – Logan Street – 3/1 – The morning line chalk looks formidable in this spot. He’s won 2 out of his last 3 and, based specifically on speed ratings, there is nobody in this that should challenge him. They actually have to run the races, though, and because of that Logan Street does seem a bit vulnerable. He tends to take a race off after a win, which he did the last time he won, making him a tough bet at what should be betting odds less than the morning line. That doesn’t mean that horseplayers shouldn’t use the chalk. While his odds figure to make him an underlay, he’s a must use in any trifectas and superfectas.

3– Breathaway – 7/2– This five-year-old gelding sired by Andromeda’s Hero might be the top pick if not for the fact that jockey Gabriel Saez decides to go with Thunder Calls. Saez rode this one to a terrific third place half a length loss to Logan Street in its last. Breathaway ran too good to lose in that one when rallying along the rail. Rallying up the rail is never an easy task for any horse and Breathaway almost got there. The odds should be good enough to consider for the win, but Saez does decide to go back to Thunder Call. Breathaway is tough not to like, but also tough to endorse with the jockey change.

 
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