Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Monmouth for 5/17/2014

Profile Picture: Molly Jo Rosen

Molly Jo Rosen

May 17th, 2014

by Ryan Dickey

Monmouth race 11 | 6:00 pm ET G3 Redbank for 3&up going 1 mi. (T)

This field will be whittled-down to a few contenders after some defections, and scratches by Main Track Only entrants (including the coupled entry to the most likely winner).  Two entrants are cross-entered into the G2 Longines Dixie Stakes (PIM race 11).

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: 1-Slim Shadey

Yes, this is the real Slim Shadey, who has just over $666k in career earnings--in only five victories out of 34 starts.  He hasn’t won since February of last year, but he fits here, expecially with the defections of Roadhog (the #4) and Chamois (the #6) who are both cross-entered into a much bigger and more prestigious race not too far from the Shore.  Shadey is coupled with #1A Spa City Fever, but that entrant (along with #11 Behemouth and #12 Mezzano) is for the main track only.  Installed as the 7-2 second choice, behind the afore-mentioned Chamois, Slim Shadey gets his second start from the Jacobson barn, after being with Simon Callahan since January of 2012.  Look for Shadey to win this race, with a couple of nice prices to follow.  Bet on-top in exotics and in multi-race bets.

VALUE HORSE: 7-Admiral Perry

Shug McGaughey’s Admiral Perry hasn’t raced on the turf since October of last year at Keeneland where he ran a clunker of a race.  He’s now racing third off the layoff, and at 8-1 on the morning line, stands to become a contender due to the defections from the probable Dixie runners and the MTO’s scratching.  He’s won a turf race at Monmouth before, and is 6-1-2-1 at the distance.  Although this is a step-up class-wise from his last race, the 1-2 finishers in that race were Charming Kitten and Code West.  He has a shot at the upset here.  Bet on top and in multi-race bets.

OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 5-School House and 10-Midnight Cello

Although both of these contenders are listed as double-digit morning line odds, by post-time they should be in the 6-1, to 8-1 range.  Bet both with confidence, and expect them to fill out your exotics with a decent price.  No need to play them on top, as either Slim Shadey or Admiral Perry is your winner.  Use in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.

WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $20 PLAYERS $4 WIN/PLACE 7 ($8) $2 Exacta 1 over 5,7,10 ($6) $0.50 Trifecta 1,7/1,5,7,10/1,5,7,10 ($6--total $20)

WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $50 PLAYERS $6 WIN/PLACE 7 ($12) $5 Exacta 1 over 5,7,10 ($15) $1 Trifecta box 1,5,7,10 ($24--total $51)
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