Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Monmouth for 6/15/2014

Profile Picture: Molly Jo Rosen

Molly Jo Rosen

June 15th, 2014

by D.S. Williamson

Saturday’s feature at Monmouth Park was washed off of the turf. Hopefully, Sunday’s feature will stay on the turf. Race 9 once again looks like an affair where an overlay might be found.

Monmouth Park race 9 | 4:41 pm ET Optional Claiming (20) for 3&up going 1 mi. 70yds

4 – Go Bernie Go – It’s going to be tough for jockey Eddie Castro to steal this on the front end with Go Bernie Go just because Paco rides the other speed, Joan’s Choice. Still, the son of Western Pride runs for trainer Jorge Navarro who wins 28% with his beaten favorites first time back. He also wins with 31% of his dirt starters for a +.02 ROI. The +.02 ROI doesn’t look impressive at first until you realize that Navarro has saddled 739 horses on the dirt.

5 – King of Broadway – This four-year-old colt sired by Sky Mesa was terrible in his last, a one-turn mile race at Belmont, where he finished fifth by 9 lengths. That was a high-level allowance, though, and this is a low-level optional claimer. King of Broadway prefers gong two turns, which he will do here, and the extra 70 yards should help. Trainer Bill Mott rarely saddles them at Monmouth. When he does, they have to be looked at as having a shot especially since Mott could have run this guy in a straight $50,000 claimer at Belmont or some other track.

6 – Joan’s Choice –  On Saturday the track was favoring pressers and closers out in the middle of the racetrack. But, the final two races were won on the front end or close to the pace, meaning that if the track holds true to that form on Sunday, Joan’s Choice could be the one to back. Jockey Paco Lopez should get a nice trip right off of Go Bernie Go. Trainer David Jacobsen does put Joan’s Choice up for the claim, but you have to figure that Paco could have had his choice of mounts in this event.

Monmouth Park race 10 | 5:20 pm ET Dan Horn Hcp for 3&up NJ Breds going 1 mi. (T)

4 – Silent Appeal – Eddie Castro’s first ride with this guy produced a brilliant front running victory over the dirt. Castro is back, but Silent Appeal doesn’t have to get the lead and the gelding has run well over the turf before. More importantly, trainer Claudio Gonzalez’s numbers for the conditions of this race are fantastic:  22% winners in non-graded stakes, 29% winners third off a layoff and 19% winners dirt to turf.

3 – Chunnel – The chalk goes into this off of a terrific victory at 6 furlongs over the turf. What’s interesting is that the win, Chunnel’s maiden score, came after three straight turf tries. Trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. wins 28% with horses in non-graded stakes and Paco Lopez rides. Chunnel should have no trouble with the surface or the distance. The only problem is that since he’s the likeliest choice on the board, the odds will be short.

1/1A – Lulu Had a Baby/Jax Maxx – If the Ben Perkins trained coupled entry goes off at the morning line odds, then they’ll be the overlay in this event. Lulu Had a Baby has won two in a row and might like the turf since he was sired by Sahara Heat, an A.P. Indy horse. Jax Maxx could enjoy running over the lawn as well since he was sired by Unforgettable Max, a Northern Afleet horse. Perkins wins at only 7% with horses trying turf for the first time and both of these will be close to the pace. If one scratches, expect 7 to 1 odds or higher on the other before pulling the trigger for the win, but if both run, 5 to 1 should be your cut off for the win wager.

 
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