Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Oaklawn for 3/29/2014

Profile Picture: Molly Jo Rosen

Molly Jo Rosen

March 29th, 2014

by D.S. Williamson

Oaklawn Park has been a bonanza for overlay betting horseplayers.  Let’s see if we can find a couple of great overlays at the Arkansas track for Saturday!

Oaklawn Park 7 | 5:09 pm ET Allowance Optional Claiming (40) for 3&up going 1-1/16 mi.

5 – Flattermejim – 6/1 – The David Vance trainee failed at this level two back when getting drubbed by 5 lengths and finishing fourth.  I’m willing to forgive that run since Flattermejim bounced back in brilliant fashion in his last, winning by 2 ¼ lengths with a nice speed rating.  That was his sixth victory out of eight starts over this track.  He’s got a big chance at a price.

4 – Evan’s Calling – 9/2 – He’s 2 for 2 at Oaklawn Park, trainer Brad Cox wins 28% with horses who have won their last race, and Evan’s Calling is actually taking a step down in class from a straight allowance race to this allowance optional claimer.  Jockey Jon Court can take the lead or stalk.  The 9/2 odds, if they hold, make him an overlay as well.

1 – Pioneering Native – 3/1- This seven-year-old gelding ships in from the Louisiana circuit, Delta Downs and the Fairgrounds, where he did very well.  He won a $70,000 stakes race in his last by a nose and anything that trainer Tom Amoss sends to the track has to be respected, but before the stakes victory, Pioneering Native lost a 30k optional claimer by 5 ½ lengths.  He’s a tough chalk horse to back even though he’s got 2 wins and 2 second place finishes out of 6 races over the Oaklawn dirt.

Oaklawn Park 9 | 6:09 pm ET Rainbow Miss for AR-bred 3yo F going 6f

6 – Little Miss Flurry – The chalk, Delta Flower, could go off at lower odds than the 8/5 morning line because of the huge speed fig she ran when breaking her maiden.  I’m not sure how much better Delta Flower is than Little Miss Flurry who might improve off of a very good second place finish in her last.  I’ll go with the horse that’s likely to offer the better odds on top.

4 – Delta Flower – She was so impressive in the maiden score and jockey Terry Thompson is such a good jockey that there’s no way she goes off any higher than 8/5 in this.  The big knock, and it could be huge, is that trainer Stanley Roberts wins at only 4% with his last race maiden winners.  She’ll get the lead and Little Miss Flurry will have to pass her to score, but she’s got too much against her for me to swallow the low odds.

2-Pink Flash – In her first try against winners, she actually didn’t run that badly finishing third.  If she can improve off of that race, then she could actually win this since there’s no way that Delta Flowers and Little Miss Flurry don’t get into a speed duel as soon as they break from the gate.  Her chances could depend a lot on how far away she is from the top two choices as they turn for home.
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