Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Pimlico for 4/19/2014

Profile Picture: Molly Jo Rosen

Molly Jo Rosen

April 19th, 2014

by Ryan Dickey

Pimlico 10 | 5:24 pm ET Federico Tesio for 3yo going 1-1/16 mi.

While some might think this is just another route race for 3yo colts, the Tesio usually produces at least one Preakness starter. Even with the favorite on top this year, it's another great race to wager on.

MOST PROBABLE WINNER:  7-Kid Cruz

If you like your horse winning in front-running fashion, or from just off the pace, Kid Cruz is NOT for you.  He won the Private Terms Stakes from nearly twenty lengths off the lead last time out.  In his start prior to that, he was again double-digit lengths behind the leaders in an allowance race at Aqueduct in January.  Both times, he turned it on with powerful moves, flying down the stretch.  There’s no reason to expect anything different here.  He’s cutting back to a mile and a sixteenth, which should suit him just fine.  Expect an exciting finish.  Bet him to win, and don’t worry about the short price.

VALUE HORSE:  3-Matuszak

It may not be fair to call Matuszak a “Kid Cruz”-lite, but the comparison isn’t too far off.  They have nearly identical running styles. Both like to sit far off the pace, lying in wait, ready to make a big burst. Whereas Kid Cruz has had more success against lighter competition, Matuszak has raced against better foes, but hasn't placed as well.  They finished first (Kid Cruz) and third (Matuszak) last time out, and we should expect them both to hit the board here. At 15-1 on the morning line, Matuszak is real juicy.  Play underneath Kid Cruz in exotics, and as a second-tier in multi-race bets.

OTHERS TO CONSIDER:  2-Oliver Zip & 4-Joint Custody

Oliver Zip will be racing again fourteen days after placing in the G2 Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct.  That race, at 7 furlongs, is about where Oliver Zip needs to be running.  So why would there be any reason to back him here?  This race shapes up as a four-or-five-horse race.  Oliver Zip will get out to the front with Joint Custody (who finished second in the Private Terms Stakes between Kid Cruz and Matuszak). Kid Cruz and Matuszak will sit well off the pace, with the “also rans” in between the two groups.  Both Joint Custody and Oliver Zip need the lead, and are good speed horses.  They should duel at the lead for most of the race, only to be run down first by Kid Cruz, then Matuszak deep in the stretch. Play them both in exotics.  Leave them off multi-race bets.

WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $20 PLAYERS

$5 WIN 7 ($5)

$2 Exacta 7 over 2,3,4 ($6)

$1 Trifecta 7 over 2,3,5 over 2,3,4 ($6)

$3 PLACE 3 ($3--total $20)

WAGERING OPTIONS FOR $50 PLAYERS

$10 WIN/PLACE 7 ($20)

$2 Exacta box 2,3,4,7 ($24)

$1 Trifecta 7 over 2,3,4over 2,3,4 ($6--total $50)

MULTI-RACE BETS

PIMLICO Race 7 $1 Pick-4 ALL with 2 with 1,4,6,7 with 7

PIMLICO Race 10 $2 Daily Double 2,3 with ALL
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