Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Santa Anita Park 4/12/2015

Profile Picture: D.S. Williamson

D.S. Williamson

April 11th, 2015

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One of the best overlays of the weekend could be found in Santa Anita's feature on Sunday, April 12. The $75,000 San Pedro Stakes going 6 furlongs on the dirt has attracted 9 lightly raced three-year-olds. The favorites on the morning line, Kentuckian at 8/5 and Om at 9/5, certainly look tough on paper. But, since these are three-year-olds, any of them have a shot at improving very quickly. Who is the overlay in the tough feature at the Great Race Place on Sunday?

Santa Anita Park - Race 8 at 7:00 pm ET

San Pedro Stakes for 3yo's going 6f

1-Well Maybe - 6/1 - This Art Sherman trainee has won 2 straight after finishing sixth and losing by 5 3/4 lengths in his maiden race. The last was in February in an $80K optional claimer where jockey Joe Talamo kept Well Maybe in second by a half length before sending him to the lead in the stretch. Sherman switches to jockey Mike Smith, which shouldn't hurt his chances. His speed is unquestionable. Well Maybe broke his maiden going 5 1/2 furlongs after running a half in :44 flat. The key is his ability to rate in this. If Smith can get him out of the gate and in a good position slightly off the rail right behind the speed, Well Maybe should be in a great position to get to the finish line first. The works signal that he should be on his toes for this event.

3-The Man-6/1-When trainer Bob Baffert gets them right, they usually stay right for a long time. This one's issues appears to have been of the mental variety. He failed to win in his first 2 maiden races, losing to Well Maybe in his debut and then Why Two in his second race, before Baffert tried him at 1 1/16 miles where he finished seventh by 7 lengths. He was absolutely brilliant in his last when getting 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:03.3. He has the speed to keep up. More importantly, The Man showed the ability to lay right off in his first few races. This son of Ecclessiastic could improve big time. Since all of the win money figures to flow to Kentuckian and Om, those considering a win wager on this guy might be onto something.

2-Kentuckian-8/5- This Jerry Hollendorfer trained and Rafael Bejarano ridden son of Tiznow is a Keeneland September 2013 Sale $600,000 Fox Hill Farms' purchase. They doled out quite a few bucks for this guy. He didn't make his debut until March 7 of this year where he destroyed a group of maiden special weight rivals by 11 lengths in a 6 furlong sprint up at Golden Gate. He could be as good as the last race looked. There's also a chance that he could bounce off of the stunning effort. The works have been terrific and it's clear that he's talented. But, at what odds will he be going off at to beat more experienced runners like Well Maybe and The Man?  Also, there has to be a reason it took this talented colt close to a year and a half to make it to the track. He could win it, but there are too many question marks and the odds will be too low to put him on top.

 

 
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