Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Santa Anita Park for 1/11/2015

Profile Picture: D.S. Williamson

D.S. Williamson

January 11th, 2015

Bob Baffert’s Hoppertunity ran up the rail in the Grade 2 San Pasqual on Saturday to take home top honors as a 7/5 favorite. Baffert will be looking to win the stakes race at Santa Anita on Sunday, the Paseana, with another morning line favorite, the highly regarded Tiz Midnight. Is the five-year-old mare beatable?

Santa Anita 7 | 6:38 pm ET

Paseana Stakes for 4&Up F&M going 1-1/16 mi.

6 – My Sweet Addiction – 3/1 – This five-year-old mare sired by Tiznow has raced only 6 times in her career, but she’s never finished off the board in those 6 races. Jockey Mike Smith stays aboard, a terrific sign considering that Smith was aboard for both of her wins. Out of 7 races at the 8.5 furlong distance at Santa Anita so far, 57% have been won by horses on or close to the lead. My Sweet Addiction doesn’t know how to run any other way than pressing the pace, which could be a winning move on Sunday since it’s very likely that the chalk, Tiz Midnight, goes out to an easy lead while the other speed, Taste Like Candy, has to break from post-position 9. My Sweet Addiction has worked 8 times for 20% winning trainer Martin Jones since the second place finish in a 7 furlong race on Oct. 13. If it’s a match race between this one and the chalk on the backstretch, horseplayers backing My Sweet Addiction should be feeling good.

4-Tiz Midnight – 9/5 – Nobody will argue against how gutsy Tiz Midnight was in winning the Grade 2 Bayakoa in her last. After being headed by Warren’s Veneda at the 1/16th pole, Tiz Midnight gamely fought back to win by a head. Although it was a fantastic win and shows how tough she is, the Baffert trainee really hasn’t improved since her brilliant maiden score in June where she won by 11 lengths. She’s definitely a good horse, but My Sweet Addiction could be sitting on a monster race, a coming out party type race, and that might leave Tiz Midnight in the runner-up position in the feature at Santa Anita on Sunday.

7-Ebloussante – 10/1 – This over $2M purchase trained by Zenyatta’s conditioner, John Shirreffs, burst onto the scene with two victories in fantastic fashion in her first 2 lifetime races. Since then, things haven’t gone so well for the six-year-old mare sired by Bernardini. She lost the Grade 3 Shuvee by 30 lengths at Saratoga in July of 2013 before finishing second in an allowance race by 1.25 lengths as a .60 cents on the dollar favorite. In her last 2 races, the Grade 3 Adoration this past May and an $80,000 allowance at Del Mar over the turf in August have led to the worst performances of her career. She lost the Adoration by 55 lengths and then lost the turf race by 25 lengths. One would think that Shirreff’s would retire her if there was something wrong. She is incredibly well-bred. Her mother is Vertigineaux by Kris S and Bernardini was sired by A.P. Indy so one has to believe that Shirreff’s feels that she’s got a shot since she isn’t in the breeding shed yet. Somebody has to finish third in this. Why not Ebloussante?
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