Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Saratoga late Pick 4 for 8/4/2014

Profile Picture: Molly Jo Rosen

Molly Jo Rosen

August 4th, 2014

by Andrew Champagne
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The argument can be made that Saratoga’s prestige shows through most on its weekdays. Even its lesser cards, like Monday’s nine-race slate, are still pretty darned good. The late Pick Four sequence features a stakes race to kick things off, as well as a wide-open allowance race that could be a feature on its own. Let’s get to it.

RACE #6: This is a division of the New York Stallion Series for state-bred fillies. I’m going two-deep, using #5 Lady Kreesa (4-1) and

#6 Old Harbor (3-1). Both exit a race at this level at Belmont, and Lady Kreesa, in particular, may relish the added distance.

If this race was any shorter, I’d have also used #10 Miss Narcissist (12-1). If you bet horses eligible to improve off of suspect trips, you’re getting a heck of a price here. She’d shown tons of early speed in two stakes wins, yet last out, she was taken ten lengths off the early lead. A rider switch was made, and while I think this is a little long for her, she could be a substantial overlay.

RACE #7: Here we have a turf sprint for $40,000 claimers. I’m going four-deep, but I think one pair merits a slightly better chance than another.

#7 Scribbling Sarah (4-1) is the only one in this field with a win over this turf sprint course. That’s invaluable, and if she’s ready off the bench, she could win. Meanwhile, #9 Thundering Gale (5/2) makes her first start for Chad Brown, who is 40% with horses first off the claim.

I’ll also use some prices in #3 Saratoga Karaoke (6-1) and #5 Lakeview Lady (10-1). Saratoga Karaoke will close in a race with several horses who should go early, while Lakeview Lady graduated last out and tries winners for the first time here.

RACE #8: This is an allowance race for state-bred fillies and mares with no other conditions, and it’s attracted a talented, evenly-matched bunch. As such, I’ve gone five-deep.

#2 Unbelievable Dream (3-1), #3 Invading Humor (5-1), #4 Vicki’s Dancer (7/2), #5 Double the Energy (5-1), and #8 Frosty Bay (6-1) are all on my ticket. Reluctantly, I’ve picked Double the Energy on top.

She may be the lone speed in this field, and if she can work out a trip, that could prove to be the difference.

RACE #9: We go into the dark day after a $20,000 claimer for sprinters. I’ve used three horses in the final leg, including a big longshot.

My top picks are #4 Cast a Doubt (5-1) and #11 Sense of Peace (4-1).

Both drop in class, and both could be good prices in a field of this size.

However, don’t sleep on #10 Demon’s Deputy (20-1). As of now, there is no rain in the forecast. Throw out his six off-track races. In all of them, he’s been beaten by double-digit lengths. However, in 17 races contested over fast going, he has three wins, three seconds, and four thirds, including a victory two back at Belmont at this level. I like the bullet work here on July 20th, and I think he’s ready to fire a big one at a juicy price.

This is a $60 ticket, one with a couple of longshots on it that could inflate your potential payoff. If you play, good luck!
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