Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Woodbine for 6/18/2014

Profile Picture: Molly Jo Rosen

Molly Jo Rosen

June 18th, 2014

by Molly Jo Rosen

It's still the only wager I've never had a winning ticket ~ mythical or live-money ~ on. And now that there's a $135,946 carryover in the Woodbine Jackpot Hi5, I'm making it my life's mission to hit this thing. And it's only a $.20 minimum ~ even better!

*fingers crossed* we hit this thing!

Woodbine race 8 | 10:10 pm ET N2L Claiming (20-19) for 3&up F&M going 7f (A)

1-Flaring Star: maybe needed the race off the layoff

2-Wings of Paradise: class drop for need-the-lead type

3-Star of the Forest: fit v. these before the layoff

4-Crystal Duck: gets to stretch out just a bit further but has to be put closer to the lead

5-Tarty to the Party: 2nd-itis has to hold on

6-Sure Would: speed's in off the win

7-Sandys Hurricane: lone try against open company was a win v. claiming company at 7f... kinda like tonight

8-Nahima: Casse drops her for 2nd back off the near-year layoff

9-La Nena Del Valle: was overmatched last year & now drops back to a realistic level against open company

Here's the logic...

This is a non-winners of two races lifetime claiming event for older fillies & mares going the more-than-a-sprint/not-quite-a-route specialist distance of 7f on Woodbine's synthetic surface. Even though the morning line might not suggest it, this is a really evenly matched field ~ specifically because (unlike an unrestricted claiming race) you cannot have more than one win. There's a fair amount of speed in here and no real monster closer, so that makes it even more of a puzzle.

The two best horses on paper are 5-Tarty to the Party and 8-Nahima, but I wouldn't overlook 6-Sure Would given that she finally put it all together last out. I also think we can probably beat 4-Crystal Duck or 2-Wings of Paradise with a better priced longer-shot like 7-Sandys Hurricane. And of the confirmed longshots - because you know at least one of them's gonna run big - 3-Star of the Forest intrigues me most, especially since she had apprentice ("bug") weight last out & gets Garcia up this time (Perkins/Garcia are hitting at 21% this year).

Picks: 8 - 7 - 6 - 3 - 5
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