Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Woodbine for 8/30/2014

Profile Picture: Ryan Dickey

Ryan Dickey

August 30th, 2014

by Ryan Dickey

Woodbine 7| 3:57 pm ET

Vice Regent Stakes for 3 yo going 1 mi. (T)

 

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 2-Spadina Road

This gelding out of the Robert Tiller barn retains the services of Eurico Da Silva, and those two horsemen have hit the board 17 out 30 tries together, winning 5, with an average win payout of $6.12. If Spadina Road goes off at 2-1, that’s exactly what you’ll get. He’s a fine non-graded stakes horse, who has yet to test the waters of graded stakes company, but is enjoying decent paydays having hit the board in 8 of 9 career races. He’s won his only two non-stakes races (MSW and Allowance), and his only “dud” came last August in his second career start, when he came in fifth in a race won by Conquest Titan. He has history racing against more than half of today’s field, and has won 3 of his last 5 races. Although he should be the favorite, today may not be the best day to back him.

VALUE HORSE: 4-Man Cave

Man Cave may have found his niche. After his first seven starts came on Woodbine’s Polytrack, he shifted to the turf course two races back. The first race, at a mile, proved to be a winner, with today’s jockey Luis Contreras on board. Man Cave has three career wins: that turf route at one mile, and two synthetic wins at 1 mile and 70 yards. Minus his 2014 campaign debut race, he’s had his best two speed ratings on the turf, and seems to be “dialed-in” at the one mile distance. At 6-1 on the morning line, having poor results in previous stakes races (a 6th and a 7th in two tries), and not having the history against the rest of the field as so many others do, Man Cave may be the forgotten horse here. That equals value. Play him on top of exotics, and in multi-race bets.

OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 5-Flashy Magaritta

Five times in Flashy Margaritta’s career has he gone off as the post-time favorite. In only one of those races, has he beaten any horse racing here today. He beat Spadina Road, with Patrick Husbands (today’s jock) up, last November in a 7 furlong $125 k stakes race at Woodbine. He’s won 4 of his 8 career starts, and won his only try on the grass. He’s stretching out one furlong from his last race, and is trying the turf at two furlongs longer than his first win on the turf at 6 furlongs. He should get a piece. Play underneath in exotics.

WAGERING STRATEGY FOR $20 PLAYERS:

$6 WIN 4 ($6)

$4 PLACE 4 ($4)

$2 Exacta 4 over 2,5 ($4)

$1 Trifecta box 2,4,5 ($6--total $20)

WAGERING STRATEGY FOR $50 PLAYERS:

$10 WIN 4 ($10)

$5 PLACE/SHOW 4 ($10)

$3 Exacta 4 over 2,5 ($6)

$1 Trifecta 2,4 over 2,4,5 over ALL ($24--total $50)
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