Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Woodbine for 9/14/2014

Profile Picture: Ryan Dickey

Ryan Dickey

September 14th, 2014

byRyan Dickey  

Woodbine 9| 5:12 pm ET

G2 Canadian Stakes for 3 yo+ F&M going 1-⅛ mi. (T)  

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 10-Solid Appeal

This is a very classy mare that has run exclusively in graded stakes company for the last 8 races, and has three black-type victories to her credit.  She has won five of her eight tries on Woodbine’s turf course, and has a win and a show at this distance on her resume.  Although she didn’t fare too well in her last outing on July 19 at Saratoga in the G1 Diana, she WAS a 30-1 shot who finished 5th.  The layoff since then is a minor concern.  Her outside post is also a minor concern: she’s never worn a saddle cloth with two digits, but she has won from the #9 position with today’s rider Campbell up.  Her name fits her perfectly here, as she is solid and appealing.  If you are looking for a price, look elsewhere.  

VALUE HORSE: 9-Industrial Policy

Do you want to bet a 15-1 morning line horse that finished fifth in her only graded stakes attempt, and then followed it up by being a beaten favorite at incredibly short odds?  If you answered no, then move along.  But if you are intrigued, look no further than Industrial Policy.  Formerly from the Chad Brown barn, she is now being trained by Woodbine training guru Mark Casse.  Her first start under Casse was the G2 Dance Smartly here at Woodbine on July 6.  She finished fifth, but it looks like Castellano (today’s jockey) had plenty of horse coming home, but she had nowhere to go.  He zigged and zagged the 4-year old, but she couldn’t get up for the photo finish, and ended up a length behind.  In her next race, as the odds-on heavy favorite, she was less forwardly-placed, and just didn’t have enough to get there at the end.  If her odds stay near the morning line, she can be the price exotic bettors are looking for.  She has a chance to win it all, but has a better shot of simply hitting the board.  Play on top in exotics, and in multi-race bets.  

OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 3-Deceptive Vision and 8-La Tia

Deceptive Vision finished 2nd in the previously mentioned G2 Dance Smartly her last out in July.  This will be her third consecutive G2 try, and her works have been decent for the most part.  You’ll need to play her in exotics, as she’s a contender.  

La Tia should be the pacesetter here, and her best shot is to try to get out quickly, and wire the field.  She has won at this distance on Arlington’s poly-track, and finished fourth in last year’s Canadian Stakes.  In the off-chance that she wires the field, play her on top.  Look to the outside posts to hit the board in this race.  

WAGERING STRATEGY FOR $20 PLAYERS:

$2 WIN 9 ($2)

$2 Exacta 9,10 over 3,8,9,10 ($12)

$0.50 Trifecta 3,8 over 3,8,9,10 over 3,8,9,10 ($6--total $20)  

WAGERING STRATEGY FOR $50 PLAYERS:

$6 WIN/PLACE 9 ($12)

$2 WIN 8 ($2)

$2 Exacta 9,10 over 3,8,9,10 ($12)

$1 Trifecta box 3,8,9,10 ($24--total $50)
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