Homeracing

Player Quick Pick: Woodbine for 9/21/2014

Profile Picture: Ryan Dickey

Ryan Dickey

September 21st, 2014

by Ryan Dickey  

Woodbine 9| 5:07 pm ET

G3 Ontario Derby for 3 yo going 1-⅛ mi. (A)  

 

MOST LIKELY WINNER: 7- Ami’s Holiday

As a rule, I don’t usually bet the “most likely winner” because they usually come with the requisite short odds.  But if you’re playing this race--this horse wins.  This horse seems to love Woodbine, and the fake dirt.  He’s only had one race at this distance, and finished fifth, but he’s cutting back from 12 furlongs on turf last time out.  Josie Carroll has a nice ROI in turf-to-synth races, and this horse is ready to win.  Play on top.

VALUE HORSE: 6-Picozza

Big-time owners.  Pletcher horse.  Had his best speed figs when he placed behind Medal Count on the Poly-track at Keeneland in the G3 Transylvania.  May give Ami’s Holiday a run for the money.  Juicy ML odds.  Will be bet, though--probably 3rd favorite to Coltimus Prime and Ami’s Holiday.  Play in exotics and in multi-race bets.

OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 2-Coltimus Prime

Most good horses make that “leap” sometime in their 3 year old year.  Well, Coltimus Prime made his in July, when he won the Prince of Wales stakes at Fort Erie.  He put in his most dramatic performance, beating Lynx, and the favored Ami’s Holiday going away.  However, it’s very difficult to win at 9 furlongs coming off the layoff.  Coltimus Prime is a horse to watch, but Ami’s Holiday should get the best of him today.  Play him underneath in exotics, as he’ll be a contender.  

WAGERING STRATEGY FOR $20 PLAYERS:

$10 WIN 7 ($10)

$2 Exacta 7 over 2,6 ($4)

$1 Trifecta box 2,6,7 ($6--total $20)  

WAGERING STRATEGY FOR $50 PLAYERS:

$20 WIN 7 ($20)

$8 PLACE 6 ($8)

$5 Exacta 7 over 2,6 ($10)

$2 Trifecta box 2,6,7 ($12--total $50)
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