Preakness Stakes Make the Case - Anothertwistafate & Owendale

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D.S. Williamson

May 15th, 2019

The Preakness Stakes takes place this Saturday on May 18. Although neither Country House nor Maximum Security will run in the race, the field should be deep. That means a horse offering overlay odds could take it. Two possible overlay odds horses could be Anothertwistafate and Owendale. Keep reading for the case for and the case against both.

Preakness Stakes Case For & Against Anothertwistafate & Owendale

Preakness Case for and against Anothertwistafate

After his impressive win in the El Camino Real Derby, Anothertwistafate appeared on the fast track for a Kentucky Derby start. Things didn’t work as planned in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby, though. He couldn’t catch the Todd Pletcher trained Cutting Humor. In the last gasp effort for a Derby entry, trainer Blaine Wright ran Anothertwistafate in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes. A second place finish doomed his Derby chances.

No worries, right? Truth be told, the Preakness Stakes fits this guy much better than the Derby would have. Anothertwistafate has speed in a race that appears to be lacking a ton of it. He should get an excellent trip under jockey Jose Ortiz while his sire, Scat Daddy, is one of best in North America. He’ll have a shot, but just like every entrant in the 2019 Preakness Stakes, there are some knocks.

Anothertwistafate might just be a really good Grade 3 or non-graded stakes horse. The El Camino Real Derby used to be a Grade 3 and he won that easily. He finished second in a couple of Grade 3 races after that. It doesn’t mean he won’t make a lot of money for his owners and win a lot of races. It does mean he might just be a cut below these. Hey, there’s nothing wrong with that, but we shouldn’t back him to win a Triple Crown race if he really only is a Grade 3 horse.

Preakness Case for and against Owendale

I love Owendale’s chances on Saturday, he’s my second choice. Let’s get the negatives out of the way first. Here they are:
  1. a) He ran faster in the Lexington than he ever has in his career and could bounce in the Preakness
  2. b) War of Will beat him by a country mile in the Risen Star Stakes
  3. c) He was running at Ellis Park and Indiana Downs as a two-year-old
Those three reasons are difficult to get past. Then again, Owendale easily dominated his competition in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes and he did it like a horse on the improve. The son of Into Mischief was purchased for $200,000 at the 2017 Keeneland September Sale. He chased a 24.1 quarter-mile and a 48.1 half-mile in the Lexington.

Keeneland’s not nearly as fast as it used to be. It’s still plenty fast, though. Owendale ran by his competition like they were standing still. Not only that, but Brad Cox trains. He also posted a fantastic work May 11 at Churchill Downs.

Three-year-olds can really improve this time of year. Owendale might have been my Derby horse if he had made the race. He’s got the best turn of foot in the Preakness. That makes him a possible key horse for all exotic wagers. At likely odds of 12/1 to win on Saturday, we must take him seriously.

As for Anothertwistafate, it’s hard to convince me that he belongs. He won the El Camino Real Derby on the lead against some mediocre horses. When facing tougher competition, he couldn’t get the job done twice. That doesn’t mean he won’t be in my 2019 Preakness Stakes superfecta. It does mean he won’t get any of my win or exacta money.