Homeracing

Pro Player Quick Pick - Monmouth - 9/14/2014

Profile Picture: D.S. Williamson

D.S. Williamson

September 14th, 2014

By D.S. Williamson

Another great card awaits horseplayers at Monmouth Park on Sunday. The 10 Race card features a mix of turf and dirt races. Race 9 appears to be the most competitive as 12 entries are scheduled to hit the track for the 6 furlong optional claiming event. The chalk, Alaco Castle, is at 4 to 1 on the morning line and breaks from post-position 12. Is there a horse in the field going off at overlaid odds on which horseplayers should be keying?

Monmouth Park 9 | 4:58 pm ET

OC (20) 3&Up going 6f

9 – Show Me the Way – 6/1 – This six-year-old gelding sired by Rockport Harbor lost by 18 lengths in its last, a $25K optional claimer. But it broke through the gate twice and then set crazy fractions, :21.3 for the first quarter and :44.1 for the half, before throwing in the towel well before the stretch. I’m willing to forgive Show Me the Way for that performance since the gelding is likely to be the fastest horse in the race to the second call. There just doesn’t appear to be any other equine capable of keeping up with the Cathal Lynch trainee. Speaking of Cathal Lynch, the trainer is winning at 38% at the meet and 34% overall this year. With a clean break, jockey Frankie Pennington, who’s been aboard Show Me the Way for 2 of the horses 5 lifetime victories, could go gate-to-wire.

8 – Wildcatpleasures – 6/1 – On paper this three-year-old sired by D’Wildcat doesn’t look to have much of a shot in this race. But that’s why they run the races on the track, right? Trainer Jorge Navarro takes over and any time Navarro has one running first time off the claim, horseplayers had better pay attention. Navarro hits at 38% with such a move. He wins at 29% when he sends a horse from a route to a sprint and he wins with 31% of the horses that he starts on dirt. To make things even more advantageous for Wildcatpleasures, the top jockey at the meet, Paco Lopez, takes the call. Wildcatspleasures should surprise at what most likely will be fair if not overlaid odds.

12– Alaco Castle – 4/1– Trainer Bobby Dibona seems to be winning with everything that he starts at Monmouth Park. The bettors, no doubt, will be expecting Dibona to win the ninth at Monmouth on Sunday with Alaco Castle, who won at first asking for Dibona in July over at Delaware Park in a race with conditions almost exactly like today’s. The issue with putting Alaco Castle first in this is that ever since the victory, the horse hasn’t been the same. In fact, the Dibona trainee has lost its last two races by a combined 9.5 lengths. If Dibona’s got the gelding right, it will be tough, but if not, then even a third place finish in this might be asking a lot. Breaking from post-position 12 won’t help eight-year-old’s chance because Alaco Castle doesn’t appear to have enough early speed to get into an optimal position before they turn for home.
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