Saturday Late Pick 4 Analysis at Los Alamitos

Profile Picture: Scott Shapiro

June 29th, 2018

Tomorrow marks the first of three Saturday afternoon cards at Los Alamitos Race Course in Cypress, California before the Southern California circuit heads south to Del Mar.

The 9-race slate does not include graded stakes action like the next two Saturday cards will with the Grade 2 Great Lady M on July 7th and the Grade 3 Los Alamitos Derby on July 14th, but it does offer some solid wagering opportunities. Amongst them is the always-popular late Pick 4.

Here are my thoughts:

Race 6

2-1-morning line favorite #2 Bahamian looks vulnerable in this special weight event at six panels despite taking on graded stakes company as a two-year-old for trainer Simon Callaghan. The son of Freedom Child stalked early in his first start off the bench at Santa Anita on June 9th, but tired late to finish fourth. He can win, but I prefer the upside of two lightly raced maidens.

#6 Tunwoo is a half to $597K earner Chitu who won both of his starts at the age of two. I expect to have him ready to fire a big one on first asking off a strong series of drills. He is my top choice, but I will also include first-time gelding #3 Stop the Violence. The Gary Barber owned runner ran a strong third on debut last May, but has not seen since. A repeat of that effort could be good enough to beat this group.

Race 7

#8 Trapalanda appears the likeliest winner of this starter handicap event at one mile. The son of Slew’s Tiznow should have the speed to clear, but his outside draw will give jockey Geovanni Franco options from the gate. Trainer Reed Saldana has been shrewd at the claiming game and he may have procured another solid acquisition from Doug O’Neill last month.

If Trapalanda gets pressured early and tires late a number of runners are eligible to take advantage including the pair of John Martin trainees, #2 Secreto Primero and #7 Broken Up.

Race 8

This optional claiming event is headlined by the return of Calumet Farm’s #4 Vexatious. The daughter of Giant’s Causeway has not raced since a sixth place finish in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks last August. She failed to beat winners in six starts for Hall of Famer Neil Drysdale, but did not disgrace herself either. Clearly this is just a starting point for the four-year-old filly, but she outclasses this bunch.

If she fails to fire fresh a number of ladies can take advantage. #8 Starr of Quality comes off a seven and a half length score versus Cal-breds and is likely to take a lot of support at the windows. I think she can win, but at that price I cannot endorse her.

Race 9

I am not creative in the finale. If #11 Competing draws in off the also eligible list he should be tough to beat. The son of Majesticperfection did not get off to an ideal start in his first race off a year plus layoff and ran an even third at odds of 9 to 5. With a better break and the start under his belt this year he should be good enough to get his picture taken for the first time.

If he does not draw in, it is more wide-open. #1 Katzumoto, #2 Artistic Ab, and #4 Angry Bobby all are capable of beating this lackluster group of non-winners.

Suggested Wagers:

Ticket 1 ($1 Pick 4)

Race 6: 3+6

Race 7: 8

Race 8: 1+3+4+10

Race 9: 1+2+4+11

Ticket Cost: $32

Ticket 2 ($1 Pick 4)

Race 6: 3+6

Race 7: 1+2+6+7+8

Race 8: 4

Race 9: 1+2+4+11

Ticket Cost: $40

Total Budget: $72