Homeracing

Shapiro's Fair Odds Line for the 2018 Kentucky Derby

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May 5th, 2018

Today is the day. At 6:48 ET the anticipation ends and the gates open for the 144th Kentucky Derby.

With less than 12 hours before the big race there is little work left to be done. It is now in the hands of the racing gods.

With that being said here is my final fair odds line for the 2018 “Run for the Roses.”

#1 Firenze Fire (500-1) Likely to send from the rail, but also likely to pack it in early.

#2 Free Drop Billy (80-1) Best case is 3rd or 4th for one of two Romans runners.

#3 Promises Fulfilled (100-1) Likely pacesetter will at least give his backers a thrill.

#4 Flameaway (50-1) He is a fighter that could hang around for a minor share, but hard to imagine him getting to the wire first.

#5 Audible (6-1) Love his versatility and the fact he has trained much better than he did before the big win in the Florida Derby.

#6 Good Magic (9-1) Expect him to run his race, but will his best be good enough to beat this group?

#7 Justify (9-2) The most likely winner of the race given form and trip, but not willing to swallow the price he is likely to be sent off at.

#8 Lone Sailor (35-1) Has worked well coming into the Derby and should be rolling late for Amoss/Graham. You could do worse at his price.

#9 Hofburg (20-1) The talent and class is obvious. The lack of experience is a slight concern. Prefer down the road a bit.

#10 My Boy Jack (22-1) Moves up on a wet surface, but his current price in the early wagering is far too low.

#11 Bolt d’Oro (19-1) Not as high as others on this colt, especially after seeing him train this week.

#12 Enticed (50-1) Can see him hanging around for a slice, but little shot on the win end.

#13 Bravazo (50-1) Sending from the gates appears to be the strategy. Better than his last.

#14 Mendelssohn (8-1) Has looked good since arriving. A win or off the board type.

#15 Instilled Regard (70-1) Regression in last two makes him hard to endorse.

#16 Magnum Moon (19-1) Not sure if this good looking colt is fast enough to remain undefeated.

#17 Solomini (70-1) Maybe can pick up the pieces late, but not inspired by any of his 2018 efforts.

#18 Vino Rosso (20-1) His upside and pedigree make him a fringe contender, but I prefer other Pletcher runners.

#19 Noble Indy (15-1) Of the long shots on the morning line I like his chances most.

#20 Combatant (95-1) Has struggled to win races. Will hope to make one run late. Not for me.

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