Shapiro's Fair Odds Line for the Kentucky Derby as of April 25th
We are just 10 days away from one of the more fascinating Kentucky Derby’s in recent memory. This year’s group of colts is as top heavy and strong as I can recall.
I am unlikely to be involved in the Win pool unless my opinion on a top choice becomes stronger over the next week and a half, but demanding fair value is a must. At the moment I have clear separation between my Top 4 and the rest of the field, but there is still plenty to sort through as horses arrive in Louisville each day.
Here is my fair odds line as of Wednesday April 25th:
Good Magic (6-1)- I was not overly impressed with either of his prep races, but goal all along has been to win the Kentucky Derby. I love the way he is coming into the race. My lukewarm top choice as of now.
Justify (6-1)- One of the likeliest winners, but his lack of seasoning and how he will respond if he encounters adversity makes his probable price hard to swallow.
Audible (7-1)- Loved both of his graded stakes wins at Gulfstream Park and his running style. If he handles the increased distance he has as good a shot as anyone.
Mendelssohn (7-1)- The talent is obvious as is his class. The fourth of my clear top 4 ten days out.
Vino Rosso (12-1)- The horse that has grown on me most over the past week. The distance should not be an issue and Johnny V. opts to ride him over the other Pletcher runners.
Hofburg (16-1) – Mott’s confidence in this colt is clear. If he moves forward off of that impressive runner-up effort in the Florida Derby he can spring the upset for Juddmonte Farms.
Magnum Moon (16-1) – Has shown a lot of talent, but is still learning as evidenced by his finish in Arkansas. If he gets caught in traffic I do no expect him to handle it well.
Bolt d’Oro (18-1) – Was handily defeated by in the Santa Anita Derby. Expecting regression next Saturday for a barn that has no experience in a spot like this.
My Boy Jack (30-1) – Not sure he has the punch to win the race, but makes a lot of sense to “pick up the pieces” at a price for the Desormeaux brothers.
Noble Indy (32-1)- The least likely of the TAP colts to get to the wire first, but his fight in NOLA to battle back and win the Louisiana Derby is worth noting.
Flameaway (35-1) – I am not convinced he can be at his best without being on or right off the lead, but you could do worse in the 3rd and 4th spots in the superfecta.
Enticed (40-1)- Despite pedigree that suggests otherwise this colt appears best suited for shorter distances.
Lone Sailor (48-1) – Like My Boy Jack, his best effort could land him in the number.
Solomini (50-1) – Has failed to move forward as a three-year-old for Baffert. A class below the top tier.
Instilled Regard (60-1) – Was high on this colt after the Los Alamitos Futurity and Lecomte, but he has been unimpressive in his last two, including a fourth place effort in the Santa Anita Derby. Hard to endorse.
Combatant (75-1) – Perhaps he can pass a number of tiring rivals, but I give little chance for him to earn Steve Asmussen his first Derby.
Free Drop Billy (80-1) - Simply not fast enough to compete with this field.
Bravazo (100-1) – No idea what happened in Louisiana, but he appears overmatched.
Promises Fulfilled (250-1) – Likely to be on the lead early, but will be surprised if he is not near the rear of the field late.
Firenze Fire (500-1) – A one-turn horse that is in way over his head in this spot.