Homeracing

Too Early 2018 Kentucky Derby Top 4

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D.S. Williamson

November 19th, 2017

It's never too early to come out with a Kentucky Derby Top 4. That's the way I see it. Derby fever has already hit some of us. How could it not? That was a fantastic Breeders' Cup Juvenile that we witnessed on Nov. 4.

One thing to note about the Kentucky Derby is that while for many years longshots ruled, the favorite has taken home the last 5 runnings of the Derby. This includes Orb winning the Derby in 2013 as a 5 to 1 shot. Check out my way too early Top 4!



1. Good Magic

There's no telling how good this horse can be. The Chad Brown trainee was sired by the great Curlin. He's also from a Hard Spun mare, Glinda the Good. Good Magic showed up big time in only his third lifetime race, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The way he so easily won the BC Juvenile was flat out impressive.

Some believe he won due to a mid-strack speed bias. I'm not so sure that's the case. Maybe, he was just better than his competition that day. I think if he improves at all, he could stay at #1 on my Top 4 for a long, long time.

2. Solomini

The Bob Baffert trainee is another that could improve by leaps and bounds. Like Good Magic, he too was sired by Curlin. He ran a fantastic race in the BC Juvenile. The fact that he held on for second after running a quarter-mile in less than 23 seconds is impressive.

There's no way he doesn't get better from here. I think he's one to definitely watch.



3. Mendelssohn

An Aidan O'Brien trained horse in the Kentucky Derby? Maybe, not. It depends on what O'Brien wants to do with Mendehlsson. The reason he's in my Top 3 is because he was fantastic when winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. But, that's not the only reason.

He should relish dirt. Mendelssohn's sire is Scatt Daddy. He's also got Clever Trick on his broodmare's side. That says dirt all day. If Aidan is serious about the Run for the Roses, I have no doubt he'll develop him into a top Derby contender.



4. Bolt D'Oro

I have my doubts about Bolt D'Oro. All racehorses develop and peak at different times during their racing lives. Has Bolt D'Oro already peaked? I'm not sure. He might have in the Frontrunner Stakes. We'll find out right away when trainer Mick Ruis puts him into his next Derby prep.

Because he was so dominant before the Breeders' Cup Juvenile flub, I must respect. However, I do have doubts that he can run much better than he already has.

 

 

 
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