SEC NCAAF Free Pick

LSU at Alabama, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
LSU Tigers+6 (-110)+180N/A
Alabama Crimson Tide-6 (-110)-225N/A

The game we’ve all been waiting for is finally here. The LSU-Alabama rivalry has decided many SEC West races over the last decade, but unlike previous bouts, this one features two high-flying offenses.

The Tigers have the second-ranked passing offense in America, which averages 377.6 yards through the air behind Joe Burrow’s powerful right arm. Arguably the most battle-tested team in the country, the Tigers scored more than 40 against Texas and Florida. Only Auburn has held LSU to fewer than 30 points in 2019.

Pro Football Focus argues Alabama’s four top wide receivers—Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and Henry Ruggs III—is the best group of wide receivers in the history of college football. Even though quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has not officially been named starter, we all know the future first-round draft pick will be healthy enough to play Saturday afternoon.

There’s so much offensive firepower, the wise thing to do is bet the under. Nick Saban knows the best way to slow down Burrow is to take the ball out of his hands. The Crimson Tide will keep the ball on the ground and pound the rock with Najee Harris.

Another reason the under is a wise bet? Even though Alabama is at home, No. 1 teams don’t lose in this spot.

Pick: Under 62.5

Missouri at #6 Georgia (-16.5), Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

“Dreadful” is a nice way of describing how Missouri plays on the road. Although they are undefeated at home, the Tigers have lost to Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Wyoming by an average of 11.6 points. Even if Kelly Bryant was completely healthy, it’s hard to imagine them keeping this game close.

Pick: Georgia -16.5

Tennessee at Kentucky (-1), Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network

No matter who’s been on the other sideline, Mark Stoops has struggled against Tennessee. Last year’s inexplicable loss at Neyland Stadium is fresh on the mind of this Kentucky team. Propping this game up as the Super Bowl of an injury-riddled season, the Wildcats enter the matchup off a bye. This will be Tennessee’s sixth-straight week without a break. The physicality in the trenches will pay off for UK in a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Kentucky -1

Vanderbilt at #10 Florida (-26.5), Saturday, noon ET, ESPN

The Commodores have only defeated Florida once since 1989. Ever since that 2013 victory, only one game has been decided by more than two scores. But keeping this game close is much easier said than done. I expect the Gators to bounce back with big plays against a porous Commodore defense that ranks 13th in the SEC at defending the pass.

Pick: Florida -26.5

Appalachian State at South Carolina (-6), Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

App State was in contention to be the New Years Six’s Group of Five representative until it laid a stinker against Georgia Southern at home on a windy Halloween night. Georgia Southern won by controlling the ball on the ground. It is going to be a lot more difficult for the Gamecocks to do without Tavien Feaster. The Gamecocks should outlast the Mountaineers, but I’m taking the points.

Pick: Appalachian State +6

Western Kentucky at Arkansas (-1), Saturday, noon ET, SEC Network

Chad Morris is 2-3 versus Group of Five opponents, and this G5 opponent has a former Arkansas quarterback starting under center. The Tops aren’t losing in the Ty Storey revenge game.

Pick: Western Kentucky +1


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