|Florida||-5.5 (-110)||-220||Over 47 (-110)|
|South Carolina||+5.5 (-110)||+175||Under 47 (-110)|
South Carolina shook up the college football world last week with its upset of Georgia at Sanford Stadium as a 21-point underdog. What’s even more impressive? The Gamecocks did it after starting quarterback Ryan Hilinski left the game in third quarter with a knee injury.
Hilinski’s injury is not expected to linger into Saturday’s matchup with Florida at Williams-Brice Stadium. It’s also unlikely he will have to evade two of the SEC’s top pass rushers, Jonathan Greenard and Jabari Zuniga (seven combined sacks). Florida coach Dan Mullen described each as “game-time decisions” on Monday—not a good sign they’ll play Saturday.
Florida’s defensive line stole the early season headlines. Now South Carolina’s is proving to be on of the best in the country. Javon Kinlaw is playing his way into the first round of the NFL Draft, with an SEC-best five sacks. His counterpart, D.J. Wonnum, is up to 3 1/2 sacks after a slow start.
Florida put up an admirable fight in Death Valley last week, when it led LSU by a touchdown with 20 minutes to play, and quarterback Kyle Trask has been better than expected. Each team fields talented secondaries that will capitalize on every mistake the former backups make.
Fresh off a win that could define the Will Muschamp era at South Carolina, some might believe this is the perfect time for a letdown game. Expect the opposite.
Perspective on South Carolina spot this week – Since 2000, been 14 teams to win outright as a 20-point dog and then were a dog in next regular season game. Those 14 went 11-3 ATS in next game. Only one to pull the double upset – 2016 Syracuse – beat VT +21, beat BC +4.
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) October 15, 2019
South Carolina’s slow start to the season made it an easy punching bag, but its defense has developed into one of the best in the SEC. Parlay the with the +5 to add some extra juice to your Saturday.
Pick: Under 47
Mississippi State will need to score a ton to be able to keep up with LSU, and I just don’t see it, especially coming off a lame 10-point outing at Tennessee. The only other time State faced a decent offense, it gave up 56 to Auburn. LSU might score even more.
Pick: LSU -17.5
A&M has not fared well against the Mississippi schools. The Aggies have a 3-7 record against Ole Miss and Mississippi State since the last time they defeated each, back when Johnny Manziel was slinging the ball around the field. But this year A&M is a much better team. In situations like this I rely on odd trends that capture my attention. The following from CBS’ Tom Fornelli stuck with me.
— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) October 15, 2019
Pick: Ole Miss +5.5
Alabama is currently on a 12-game winning streak against their SEC East rival. Only once has the spread been greater than 34. Alabama covered a 37-point spread in 2017 with a 45-7 victory. Gearing up for an epic showdown against LSU in two weeks, Nick Saban will have the Tide rolling.
Pick: Alabama -34
After an embarrassing loss to UNLV, this could be Derek Mason’s last game as Vanderbilt’s head coach. He made a call for fans to show their support ahead of the bye week.
Even if the Vanderbilt fans show up, it will not be enough for Mason to cover and keep his job.
Pick: Missouri -21
While Auburn had a week to regroup after its loss to Florida, Arkansas lost to a Kentucky team that started a wide receiver, Lynn Bowden, at quarterback. The Wildcats surrendered 330 rushing yards in the loss to UK. The Tigers will be able to run at will against the Hogs.