Why I’m Betting Capezzano in the Dubai World Cup

Thunder Snow winning the 2018 Dubai World Cup - Coady Photography Historically speaking, American runners have fared extremely well in the $12 million Dubai World Cup (UAE-I) at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. For the majority of its history, the race has been conducted over 1 ¼ miles on dirt, and the result from 23 renewals has been 11 victories for horses based in North America. Excluding five years when the race was conducted on a synthetic Tapeta track, [...]

How to Bet the Pegasus World Cup

City of Light (outside) battles to victory over Accelerate in the Oaklawn Handicap - Coady Photography Accelerate or City of Light—who’ve you got? It seems that the majority of handicappers will be picking one of those two runners to win the $9 million Pegasus World Cup (gr. I) at Gulfstream Park, and it’s easy to understand why. They both won Breeders’ Cup races in November and will be tough to beat if they run to form at Gulfstream. [...]

Should You Bet Deep Closers in the Pegasus World Cup?

Question: Will deep closers who rally from the back of the pack have any chance to contend for a significant piece of the purse in the 2019 Pegasus World Cup (gr. I) at Gulfstream Park? It seems like nine-furlong races at Gulfstream Park often receive special scrutiny since they start so close to the first turn and there’s always concern about horses drawn outside getting hung wide and losing all chance. But might the running style of each individual horse [...]

Keying Audible in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes

Audible winning the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream Park - Photo by Leslie Martin/Coglianese Photography On a stakes-packed day of racing at Gulfstream Park, one of the highlights is the $100,000 Harlan’s Holiday Stakes (gr. III), a 1 1/16-mile event that serves as a logical steppingstone toward the $9 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (gr. I) six weeks from now. The overwhelming favorite figures to be #1 Audible, who has not run a bad race in [...]

2018 Kentucky Derby: A Horse-By-Horse Recap

Justify winning the Kentucky Derby - Coady Photography The results of the 144th Kentucky Derby are in the history books, and it was a day for records to broken. Record rainfall. Record wagering. The demise of the fabled “Apollo Curse.” Throw in the fact that favored Justify delivered with a huge victory, and you have an unforgettable Kentucky Derby. But the Preakness and Belmont Stakes are still to come, so Triple Crown season is far from over. With an [...]

Shapiro’s Fair Odds Line for the 2018 Kentucky Derby

Coady Photography Today is the day. At 6:48 ET the anticipation ends and the gates open for the 144th Kentucky Derby. With less than 12 hours before the big race there is little work left to be done. It is now in the hands of the racing gods. With that being said here is my final fair odds line for the 2018 “Run for the Roses.” #1 Firenze Fire (500-1) Likely to send from the rail, but also [...]

Shapiro’s Approach to the Oaks/Derby Double

Good Magic galloping under the Twin Spires - Coady Photography The two biggest races of the year at Churchill Downs make up a Daily Double sequence that commences with the one-million dollar Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks on Friday and concludes with the world-famous Kentucky Derby sponsored by Woodford Reserve on Saturday evening. This year’s Oaks is led by 2-1-morning line favorite #14 Monomoy Girl and 5-2-second choice #10 Midnight Bisou. The pair of three-year-old fillies bring by [...]

Betting the Kentucky Derby Trifecta on a $100 Budget

Coady Photography $5,464. Favorites may have won the last five renewals of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (gr. I), but the average payoff for the trifecta over that time frame has still been a hefty $5,464, because let’s face it—hitting the trifecta in a race with twenty horses isn’t easy. That said, I think the task could be more manageable this year because I feel strongly that #7 Justify stands above his rivals and will be [...]

Shapiro’s Final Verdict: Kentucky Derby 2018

Audible winning the Florida Derby (gr. I) - Photo by Adam Coglianese Photography We are just a few days out from the world-famous Kentucky Derby set to go to post at 6:50 local time on Saturday evening. The first leg of the Triple Crown has been as enjoyable as ever to analyze starting months ago given the talented crop set to break from the gates in the twelfth race on Saturday’s 14-race card at Churchill Downs. So without [...]

Keeler Johnson’s 2018 Kentucky Derby Fair Odds Line

Good Magic galloping under the Twin Spires - Coady Photography The field is set, the post positions have been drawn, and the countdown to the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (gr. I) continues. One of the final factors that bettors will consider while handicapping the Derby is the morning line odds, which attempt to estimate how the public will bet the race. While the morning line odds are never a perfect match with the [...]