Why I’m Betting Intrepid Heart in the Peter Pan Stakes

Intrepid Heart winning his debut at Oaklawn Park - Coady Photography While he’s unlikely to offer much wagering value, I would be surprised if #1 Intrepid Heart is defeated in Saturday’s $300,000 Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Belmont Park. Everything about this well-bred son of Tapit has caught my eye. Sold for $750,000 as a 2-year-old in training, Intrepid Heart was nominated to the Triple Crown prior to his debut, and I mentioned at the time he could [...]

2019 Kentucky Derby: Eight Unraced Nominees to Remember

Justify winning the Kentucky Derby - Coady Photography It seems hard to believe, but last year at this time, Triple Crown winner Justify was still a week away from his career debut. Perhaps emboldened by the extraordinary success of the colt who shattered the “Apollo Curse,” seventy unraced horses have been nominated to the 2019 Triple Crown, including three who haven’t even been named yet. If you’re in the mood to look for the second coming of Justify [...]

Where Justify Ranks Amongst Top Three Year Olds This Century

Jockey Mike Smith aboard Kentucky Derby winner Justify - Coady Photography After an amazing stretch that began with a maiden special weight victory at Santa Anita in mid-February and concluded with a wire-to-wire one and three-quarter length win in the Belmont Stakes last Saturday it is clear that Justify is having one of the greatest three-year-old seasons this century. The question though is how does he stack up now and where will he be if he runs the [...]

Looking for Value in the Belmont Stakes

Justify winning the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) - Jim McCue Photography There are two ways to approach choosing a “top selection” for a horse race. One is to identify the most likely winner. The other is to identify the horse offering the best wagering value. The tricky part is that they aren’t always the same horse. The most likely winner might be an obvious choice on paper, leading to very short odds that don’t reflect his actual odds [...]

Shapiros’ Fair Odds Line for the 150th Running of the Belmont Stakes

Justify winning the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) - Jim McCue Photography Last week I did a preliminary Fair Odds line for the 150th running of the Belmont Stakes, but after further research and the post-position draw here is my final rendition: #1 Justify (Even money) - The undefeated dual Classic winner obviously has a ton going for him, including tactical speed that allows him to make the lead or stalk just off the early pace. However, regressing numbers [...]

Thursday Afternoon Spot Plays at Belmont Park

Thursday afternoon starts the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival in Elmont, New York. The New York Racing Association has a massive three days of thoroughbred racing in store headlined by Justify’s attempt at history in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday. With a plethora of opportunities to score out over the weekend let’s try to get things started on Thursday with a few bankroll building spot plays during the solid 9-race card. Race 3 #3 Mybigitalianfriend is one of seven first-time starters [...]