Keeler Johnson’s 2019 Belmont Stakes fair odds line

Intrepid Heart winning his debut at Oaklawn Park - Coady Photography Upon release of the 2019 Belmont Stakes (G1) entries Tuesday evening, I immediately started work on my annual fair odds line for identifying wagering value. The concept behind my fair odds line is simple. For each horse in the field, I ask myself, “What are the chances of this horse reaching the winner’s circle?” After assigning a probability of winning to each horse (25%, 12.50%, etc.), I [...]

How to Bet the 2019 Kentucky Derby

Maximum Security wins Florida Derby (Coglianese Photos) If you’ve been following all of the 2019 Kentucky Derby coverage here on BetAmerica, you’re probably aware the scratch of morning line favorite #12 Omaha Beach has thrown my Derby handicapping into disarray. He was ranked on top in my final Kentucky Derby Top 10. He was the only horse listed as an overlay on my fair odds line. He was ranked as my lone win candidate when I split the [...]

What are the 2019 Kentucky Derby Odds?

Omaha Beach winning the Rebel Stakes (G1) at Oaklawn Park - Coady Photography Thanks to impressive past performances, positive pre-race hype and a perfect post draw, Omaha Beach has been made the 4-1 morning line favorite for the 2019 Kentucky Derby (G1). That’s a shorter price than many handicappers were expecting, because this year’s Derby is viewed as more competitive than several others in recent memory. I view 4-1 as a fair price on Omaha Beach, who looms [...]

Looking for Value in the Belmont Stakes

Justify winning the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) - Jim McCue Photography There are two ways to approach choosing a “top selection” for a horse race. One is to identify the most likely winner. The other is to identify the horse offering the best wagering value. The tricky part is that they aren’t always the same horse. The most likely winner might be an obvious choice on paper, leading to very short odds that don’t reflect his actual odds [...]

Post Positions (and Keeler Johnson’s Fair Odds Line) for the 2018 Preakness Stakes

Justify winning the Kentucky Derby - Coady Photography The good luck for Justify continued on Wednesday when the newly-crowned Kentucky Derby winner drew post position seven in the $1,500,000 Preakness Stakes (gr. I) at Pimlico Racecourse. The draw was essentially perfect for the unbeaten colt, who has been made the 1-2 morning line favorite for the May 19th classic. With just one rival drawn to his outside, Justify will have plenty of options to stay out of trouble and [...]

Keeler Johnson’s 2018 Kentucky Derby Fair Odds Line

Good Magic galloping under the Twin Spires - Coady Photography The field is set, the post positions have been drawn, and the countdown to the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (gr. I) continues. One of the final factors that bettors will consider while handicapping the Derby is the morning line odds, which attempt to estimate how the public will bet the race. While the morning line odds are never a perfect match with the [...]