How to play the all-stakes Pick 4 on Belmont Stakes Day

Bricks and Mortar winning the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) - Photo by Ashley Blum/Adam Coglianese Photography Belmont Stakes Day Pick 4 There will be no shortage of wagering options on Belmont Stakes Day at Belmont Park, but one of the most appealing bets is the Pick 4 that kicks off in Race 8. The all-stakes sequence has a guaranteed pool of $1.5 million, so with the right combination of longshot winners, the potential exists for a huge [...]

Looking for longshots in the 2019 Belmont Stakes

Intrepid Heart winning an allowance race - Keeneland Photo There is a surprising lack of genuine speed horses entered in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park. The 1 1/2-mile “Test of the Champion” serves as the third and final leg of the Triple Crown, but although the stakes are high, don’t expect to see jockeys getting aggressive for tactical positions. At least half of the 10 starters can be counted as deep closers, who will settle off [...]

Keeler Johnson’s 2019 Belmont Stakes fair odds line

Intrepid Heart winning his debut at Oaklawn Park - Coady Photography Upon release of the 2019 Belmont Stakes (G1) entries Tuesday evening, I immediately started work on my annual fair odds line for identifying wagering value. The concept behind my fair odds line is simple. For each horse in the field, I ask myself, “What are the chances of this horse reaching the winner’s circle?” After assigning a probability of winning to each horse (25%, 12.50%, etc.), I [...]

Running styles suggest slow pace in 2019 Belmont Stakes

The field breaks from the gate in the 2016 Belmont Stakes - Chelsea Durand/Coglianese Photography Contrary to popular belief, the 1 1/2-mile distance of the Belmont Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park does not give an advantage to deep closers. The typically slow pace of the Belmont Stakes gives frontrunners and pressers/stalkers an advantage that is difficult for late runners to overcome. Since 2008 three horses (Da’ Tara, American Pharoah and Justify) have won the Belmont in gate-to-wire fashion, [...]

Tacitus Prevails in Roughly-Run Wood Memorial

Tacitus winning the Wood Memorial (gr. II) at Aqueduct - © NYRA/Coglianese Photography In one of the roughest races seen on the Road to the Kentucky Derby this winter, favored Tacitus emerged from a battle-weary field to win the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct in hard-fought fashion. Chaos reigned during the run to the first turn, and even Tacitus did not emerge unscathed. A generally ragged start was made worse when Tax, breaking from the rail, [...]