Keeler Johnson’s 2019 Belmont Stakes fair odds line

Intrepid Heart winning his debut at Oaklawn Park - Coady Photography Upon release of the 2019 Belmont Stakes (G1) entries Tuesday evening, I immediately started work on my annual fair odds line for identifying wagering value. The concept behind my fair odds line is simple. For each horse in the field, I ask myself, “What are the chances of this horse reaching the winner’s circle?” After assigning a probability of winning to each horse (25%, 12.50%, etc.), I [...]

Keeler Johnson’s Preakness Stakes Top 5

Anothertwistafate winning the El Camino Real Derby - © Vassar Photography/Shane Micheli Most years you can expect the Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico to be won by a tried-and-true Triple Crown contender who ran in the Kentucky Derby (G1) two weeks prior. The stats are impressive: 31 of the last 35 Preakness winners exited a start in the Kentucky Derby. So it’s safe to say “new shooters” have been at a disadvantage in the second leg of the [...]

How to Bet the 2019 Kentucky Derby

Maximum Security wins Florida Derby (Coglianese Photos) If you’ve been following all of the 2019 Kentucky Derby coverage here on BetAmerica, you’re probably aware the scratch of morning line favorite #12 Omaha Beach has thrown my Derby handicapping into disarray. He was ranked on top in my final Kentucky Derby Top 10. He was the only horse listed as an overlay on my fair odds line. He was ranked as my lone win candidate when I split the [...]

How is Keeler Johnson Playing the 2019 Kentucky Derby?

Omaha Beach (right) holds off Game Winner (left) in the Rebel Stakes (G2) - Coady Photography While I’m still plotting out my wagering strategy for the 2019 Kentucky Derby, I’ve essentially nailed down my overall opinions of each horse and have determined whether I’ll be using them on my tickets. The Tuesday morning post position draw helped clarify my position on a few bubble contenders, including War of Will and Spinoff. I’ve sorted the 20 horses into four [...]