Keeler Johnson’s 2019 Belmont Stakes fair odds line

Intrepid Heart winning his debut at Oaklawn Park - Coady Photography Upon release of the 2019 Belmont Stakes (G1) entries Tuesday evening, I immediately started work on my annual fair odds line for identifying wagering value. The concept behind my fair odds line is simple. For each horse in the field, I ask myself, “What are the chances of this horse reaching the winner’s circle?” After assigning a probability of winning to each horse (25%, 12.50%, etc.), I [...]

Wagering on the Belmont Stakes with different budgets

Tacitus winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) - Photo by SV Photography This year’s Belmont Stakes (G1) will not get attention from the national media that the 2018 rendition did as Justify chased racing immortality, but it is still an intriguing final leg of the Triple Crown. War of Will, off of his victory in the Preakness Stakes (G1), and Tacitus, who was last seen crossing the wire fourth in the Kentucky Derby (G1), will take the bulk [...]

Who Do Ya Like Podcast: Belmont Stakes and Met Mile Preview with OptixEQ and Brisnet’s Emily Gullikson

On this week's episode of the Who Do Ya Like Podcast over the BetAmerica Radio Network, Scott Shapiro welcomes in handicapper Emily Gullikson to chat about Saturday's stakes laden card at Belmont Park. Scott and Emily take a deep dive into the Belmont Stakes and an incredibly strong rendition of the Met Mile, as well as touch on the Woody Stephens and the Acorn Stakes. Lots of great information for those getting involved in New York on Saturday afternoon.

Running styles suggest slow pace in 2019 Belmont Stakes

The field breaks from the gate in the 2016 Belmont Stakes - Chelsea Durand/Coglianese Photography Contrary to popular belief, the 1 1/2-mile distance of the Belmont Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park does not give an advantage to deep closers. The typically slow pace of the Belmont Stakes gives frontrunners and pressers/stalkers an advantage that is difficult for late runners to overcome. Since 2008 three horses (Da’ Tara, American Pharoah and Justify) have won the Belmont in gate-to-wire fashion, [...]

Which Horses Have the Best Chance to Win the Belmont Stakes?

Game Winner winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) - Coady Photography With entries due in less than two weeks, the field is slowly coming together for the final leg of the Triple Crown, the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes (G1) on June 8 at Belmont Park. At least 11 horses are under consideration for the 1 1/2-mile “Test of the Champion,” and more could join the field during the coming weeks. The Belmont figures to come up deeper [...]

2019 Kentucky Derby Horse-by-Horse Trip Notes

The finish of the 2019 Kentucky Derby (G1) - Coady Photography The 2019 Kentucky Derby will go down as one of the strangest and most controversial in history, but for handicappers, it’s just another race to dissect the same as any other. While most of the attention is being focused on the disqualified Maximum Security, the upgraded winner Country House and the troubled pair of War of Will and Long Range Toddy, it’s important for handicappers to take a [...]

How is Keeler Johnson Playing the 2019 Kentucky Derby?

Omaha Beach (right) holds off Game Winner (left) in the Rebel Stakes (G2) - Coady Photography While I’m still plotting out my wagering strategy for the 2019 Kentucky Derby, I’ve essentially nailed down my overall opinions of each horse and have determined whether I’ll be using them on my tickets. The Tuesday morning post position draw helped clarify my position on a few bubble contenders, including War of Will and Spinoff. I’ve sorted the 20 horses into four [...]

Winners and Losers at the 2019 Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw

War of Will winning the Lecomte Stakes (Hodges Photo/Fair Grounds) Who drew well and who drew poorly when post positions for the 2019 Kentucky Derby (G1) were assigned Tuesday morning? Three of the 20 horses received highly favorable post positions, while three others were compromised by their assignments. Who were these “winners” and “losers” at the post draw? Winners #3 By My Standards He showed in the Louisiana Derby (G2) he doesn’t mind racing inside of horses, and with [...]

Who is Running in the 2019 Kentucky Derby?

Morning line favorite Omaha Beach drew post #12 in the 2019 Kentucky Derby - Coady Photography Omaha Beach was shaping up to be the favorite for the 2019 Kentucky Derby (G1), even beforethe Tuesday morning post position draw at Churchill Downs, but when the talented colt drew favorably in post position #12, his status as favorite was most assuredly cemented. Omaha Beach was the penultimate horse to be assigned a post position, and there was a 50-50 chance [...]

2019 Kentucky Derby Jockey Assignments, Facts and Trends

Jockey Mike Smith aboard Kentucky Derby winner Justify - Coady Photography It is often said that jockeys are unable to make horses run beyond their abilities, but the difference between victory and defeat can come down to the skills of a rider in saving ground, timing moves correctly and riding hard to the finish line. That’s why the 20 jockeys who will compete in the 2019 Kentucky Derby (G1) include the most talented riders in North America. Leading [...]